价格规制下煤电供应紧张的机理及长期契约研究  

Research on the coal and electricity supply tension mechanism and the long-term contract under price regulation

作　　者：郭智渊 周梅华[1] 彭红军[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学管理学院,江苏徐州221116 [2]山煤农业开发有限公司,山西太原030006 [3]南京林业大学经济管理学院,江苏南京210037

出　　处：《中国矿业》2018年第3期10-16,26,共8页China Mining Magazine

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目资助(编号:71201164)

摘　　要：考虑电煤和电力的双重价格规制,分别在煤炭供应是否受运输约束两种情景下,研究我国电煤和电力供应紧张的机理及对策。首先构建博弈模型,研究我国煤电供应紧张的机理;在此基础上,构建包含违约惩罚机制的电煤供应长期契约和模型;最后进行了算例分析。研究表明,在煤炭需求旺季,电煤价格规制和运输制约导致煤炭企业供应电煤积极性降低;电力企业订购电煤的积极性降低也是电力供应短缺的最主要原因之一;电力企业的淡季违约采购进口煤的行为,加大了煤炭企业旺季减少电煤供应的可能性。包含违约惩罚机制的电煤供应长期契约,能够同时提高煤炭需求旺季煤炭企业供应电煤和电力企业订购电煤的积极性,显著降低电力供应短缺的风险,缓解煤电矛盾和冲突。Considering electricity demand uncertainty,electricity-coal and electricity price regulation,the tension mechanism of coal and electricity supplies and countermeasures are studied.Two scenarios of whether to consider transport constraints are considered.Firstly game models are building to research the tension mechanism of coal and electricity supply.On this basis,the long-term contract and model containing coal shortage default punishment mechanism are studied.Finally,it is the example analysis.The research shows that in the peak season of coal demand,electricity-coal price regulation results in decreasing coal enterprise enthusiasm of electricity-coal supply.The electricity prices regulation leads to decreasing electric power enterprise＇s enthusiasm of ordering electricity-coal.It is the direct cause of the shortage of electricity supply.Electric demand uncertainty increases the risk of electricity shortage.The long-term contract containing coal shortage default punishment mechanism can improve coal enterprise＇s enthusiasm of electricity-coal supply and the electric power enterprise＇s enthusiasm of ordering electricity-coal.This can significantly reduce the risk of a shortage of electricity supply.

关 键 词：价格规制 煤电供应链 煤电冲突 长期契约 

分 类 号：F206[经济管理—国民经济] F407.2