基于指数模型的危险货物道路运输风险评价与管理研究  

Study on Risk Evaluation and Management for Road Transport of Dangerous Goods Based on Index Model

作　　者：陈跃[1] 张玉玲[1] 

机构地区：[1]交通运输部公路科学研究院,北京100088

出　　处：《公路交通科技》2018年第3期143-150,共8页Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development

基　　金：交通运输部建设科技项目(2015318J35100);交通运输部标准化项目(2016-07-76)

摘　　要：开展危险货物道路运输风险评价可有效降低事故发生概率与后果损失,对提升企业安全管理水平具有重要意义。为提高危险货物道路运输风险评价的可靠性与实用性,在对国内多家危险货物运输企业的调研和大量线路风险的试算、数据拟合与参数调整基础上,对前人所做的风险分级指数模型进行了改进,构建了新的危险货物道路运输风险评价指数模型,主要包括4方面工作:(1)在危险货物自身风险计算中增加考量危险货物腐蚀性的指标;(2)将运输量因子、距离因子和扩散因子的最低级分值修正为0.5,在运输量因子中将剧毒化学品、爆炸品、强腐蚀性货物与一般性危险货物予以区分,并对液态和固态危险货物的扩散因子取值进行了明确;(3)修正了路线影响因子中有关指标的取值;(4)是给出了安全措施补偿因子的简化算法。在此基础上,依据最低合理可行原则,设计了基于指数评价模型的集成化风险管控流程,以切实强化定量评价对风险管理与决策的指导作用。该流程综合考察模型最终的风险指数值、构成指数的各风险参数以及风险辨识中的具体因素风险值这3个层次的风险信息,并且与各层次风险分级标准相集成。最后通过实例,展现了所提出的改进模型和管控流程的可行性与有效性,可以为企业提供一整套规范、实用的风险管理与决策支持服务。Risk evaluation of road transport of dangerous goods can effectively reduce the probability and consequence of transport accidents, which is very important to improve the safety management level of transport enterprises. In order to increase the reliability and practicality of such risk evaluation, the previous risk graded index model is improved based on investigations of a number of domestic dangerous goods road transport enterprises and a number of trial calculations, data fittings and parameters adjustments for risk of their transport routes, resulting in a new risk evaluation index model of road transport of dangerous goods. The improvement includes the following 4 aspects： （1） a corrosivity indicator is introduced into risk calculation of dangerous goods themselves; （2） the lowest rank marks of transport volume factor, distance factor and spreading factor are revised to 0. 5, in determination of the transport volume factor, the dangerous goods are classified as general dangerous goods and highly toxic chemicals, explosives and strong corrosive goods, and the values of the spreading factor for liquid and solid dangerous goods are clarified; （3） some parameter values of route factors are revised; （4） the simplified algorithm for safety precaution compensation factor is proposed. Then, based on the ALARP principle, an integrated risk management process based on index evaluation model is designed to strengthen the guiding of quantitative evaluation on risk management and decision-making. In the process, the risk information from 3 levels are comprehensively analyzed, i. e. , final risk index, risk parameters constituting final risk index, and specific risk factors through risk identification, which are integrated with different levels of risk classification criterion. Finally, the given case study shows that the improved risk evaluation index model and management process are feasible and efficient, which can provide a whole set of standardized and useful risk management and decision support se

关 键 词：运输经济 风险评价模型 指数模型 危险货物道路运输 风险管理 

分 类 号：F540[经济管理—产业经济]