朝鲜半岛的战争与和平  

War and Peace on the Korean Peninsula

作　　者：格奥尔基.托洛拉亚 

机构地区：[1]俄罗斯联邦外交部莫斯科国际关系学院东方学教研室 [2]俄罗斯科学院经济问题研究所亚洲战略研究中心 [3]"俄语世界"基金会区域项目局 [4]俄罗斯金砖国家研究委员会 [5]俄罗斯科学院经济所亚洲战略部

出　　处：《和平与发展》2018年第1期113-121,127+143,共9页Peace and Development

摘　　要：2016—2017年朝鲜半岛局势不断恶化,虽然这种趋势与特朗普和金正恩的个人对抗等主观因素有关,但主要原因在于朝鲜战争并未以美韩满意的方式结束,即消灭朝鲜、占领朝鲜领土而实现半岛统一。朝鲜的选择是通过制造核武器来与美达成"战略均势",迫使对手从形式上结束战争,承认朝鲜的地位,提供现实的安全保障和发展可能。但美国担心朝鲜的目标实现后会有"免受惩罚感",并进一步对美国的盟国实行讹诈,迫使美国做出让步。目前,通过武力手段解决朝鲜问题的可能性不能完全排除。俄罗斯和中国的政策是美朝关系健康化发展的决定性因素。The situation on the Korean Peninsula had been worsening during the period from 2016 to 2017. Although this trend can be attributed to such subjective factors as personal confrontation between Trump and Kim Jong-un among others, the major cause lies in the fact that the Korean War was not ended to the satisfaction of the US and the ROK, namely destroying North Korea and taking up North Korea's land to unify the peninsula. North Korea's choice is to reach a strategic balance with the US by developing nuclear weapons and force its rival to end the war in form, recognize North Korea's status, and provide security guarantee and development opportunities. Nonetheless, the US is afraid that North Korea would assume a "sense of impunity" after achieving its goals, further blackmail the allies of the US, and force the US to compromise. Currently, the possibility to resolve the North Korean issue by force cannot be excluded. The policies of Russia and China are decisive factors to the healthy development of the US-DPRK relations.

关 键 词：朝核问题 朝美关系 中朝关系 无核化双重冻结 俄罗斯的朝鲜政策 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]