External validation and newly development of a nomogram to predict overall survival of abiraterone-treated, castration-resistant patients with metastatic prostate cancer  

作　　者：Yun-Jie Yang Guo-Wen Lin Gao-Xiang Li Bo Dai Ding-Wei Ye Jun-Long Wu Hu-Yang Xie Yao Zhu 

机构地区：[1]Department of Urology, Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center, Shanghai 200032, China [2]Department of Oncology, Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University Shanghai 200032, China

出　　处：《Asian Journal of Andrology》2018年第2期184-188,共5页亚洲男性学杂志（英文版）

摘　　要：Abiraterone acetate is approved for the treatment of castration-resistant prostate cancer （CRPC）; however, its effects vary. An accurate prediction model to identify patient groups that will benefit from abiraterone treatment is therefore urgently required. The Chi model exhibits a good profile for risk classification, although its utility for the chemotherapy-naive group is unclear. This study aimed to externally validate the Chi model and develop a new nomogram to predict overall survival （OS）. We retrospectively analyzed a cohort of 110 patients. Patients were distributed among good-, intermediate-, and poor-risk groups, according to the Chi model. The good-, intermediate-, and poor-risk groups had a sample size of 59 （53.6%）, 34 （30.9%）, and 17 （15.5%） in our dataset, and a median OS of 48.4, 29.1, and 10.5 months, respectively. The C-index of external validation of Chi model was 0.726. Univariate and multivariate analyses identified low hemoglobin concentrations （〈110 g l^-1）, liver metastasis, and a short time interval from androgen deprivation therapy to abiraterone initiation （〈36 months） as predictors of OS. Accordingly, a new nomogram was developed with a C-index equal to 0.757 （95% CI, 0.678-0.836）. In conclusion, the Chi model predicted the prognosis of abiraterone-treated, chemotherapy-naive patients with mCRPC, and we developed a new nomogram to predict the overall survival of this group of patients with less parameters.Abiraterone acetate is approved for the treatment of castration-resistant prostate cancer （CRPC）; however, its effects vary. An accurate prediction model to identify patient groups that will benefit from abiraterone treatment is therefore urgently required. The Chi model exhibits a good profile for risk classification, although its utility for the chemotherapy-naive group is unclear. This study aimed to externally validate the Chi model and develop a new nomogram to predict overall survival （OS）. We retrospectively analyzed a cohort of 110 patients. Patients were distributed among good-, intermediate-, and poor-risk groups, according to the Chi model. The good-, intermediate-, and poor-risk groups had a sample size of 59 （53.6%）, 34 （30.9%）, and 17 （15.5%） in our dataset, and a median OS of 48.4, 29.1, and 10.5 months, respectively. The C-index of external validation of Chi model was 0.726. Univariate and multivariate analyses identified low hemoglobin concentrations （〈110 g l^-1）, liver metastasis, and a short time interval from androgen deprivation therapy to abiraterone initiation （〈36 months） as predictors of OS. Accordingly, a new nomogram was developed with a C-index equal to 0.757 （95% CI, 0.678-0.836）. In conclusion, the Chi model predicted the prognosis of abiraterone-treated, chemotherapy-naive patients with mCRPC, and we developed a new nomogram to predict the overall survival of this group of patients with less parameters.

关 键 词：abiraterone acetate castration-resistant prostate cancer external validation NOMOGRAM surviva 

分 类 号：TP311.13[自动化与计算机技术—计算机软件与理论] TH112.2[自动化与计算机技术—计算机科学与技术]