基于信息量的长白山地区泥石流易发性评价  

Susceptibility assessment of debris flow based on GIS and weight information for the Changbai mountain area

作　　者：张以晨 秦胜伍[2] 翟健健 李广杰[2] 彭帅英[2] 刘绪[2] 陈骏骏 

机构地区：[1]吉林省地质环境监测总站,吉林长春130021 [2]吉林大学建设工程学院,吉林长春130026 [3]成都市龙泉驿区城乡房产管理局,四川成都610100

出　　处：《水文地质工程地质》2018年第2期150-158,共9页Hydrogeology & Engineering Geology

基　　金：国土资源部公益性科研专项(201211095-6);吉林省科技厅科技发展计划项目(20170101001JC);国家自然科学基金青年基金(41202197)

摘　　要：长白山地区泥石流较发育,选取高程、坡度、坡向、年降水、年蒸发、泥石流点密度、人口密度、构造作用、河流作用、地层岩性、地下水类型、地貌类型、土地利用13个影响因素,以研究区110个泥石流点为样本数据,连续型指标依据各个因素分级状态下泥石流比例曲线和信息量曲线的突变点为等级划分临界值,离散型变量根据已有分类分级,建立了长白山地区泥石流易发性指标评价体系。基于信息量模型和GIS平台的栅格数据,计算各个因素分级状态下的信息量,采用自然断点法将易发性等级分为5级。结果表明:泥石流高易发区主要为地层岩性较差、靠近河流和断层的区域,土地利用类型为农业用地和居住使用地,较高易发区和高易发区占总研究区面积的19%,大部分地区较安全。采用曲线下面积即AUC值作为易发性精度验证结果,AUC值为93%,表明评价结果可靠。Susceptibility evaluation is conducted at the Changbai Mountain area where debris flows frequently occur. Thirteen influence factors are chosen as the evaluation indices,including the slope height,slope,aspect,annual precipitation,annual evaporation,density of debris flow,population density,tectonism,fluviation,formation lithology,groundwater types,geomorphological types and land use types. The frequency curve of debris flow and the magnitude curve of information are drawn based on 110 debris flows points.Continuous indices classification is based on catastrophe points on the curve and discrete indices classification is based on the existing standards. The grid data model of GIS platform and weight information model are used to obtain the information values of each index. The susceptibility evaluation results show that the high susceptibility areas are characterized by poor tectonism,closing to rivers and tectonic lines,erosion and denudation landforms,and agricultural and residential lands. The AUC value is conducted as the accuracy of the susceptibility evaluation of debris flow. The accuracy is 93%. The total area of higher susceptibility areas and high susceptibility areas accounts for 19% of the study area,and most of the areas are safe.

关 键 词：地质灾害 泥石流 易发性评价 信息量 GIS 长白山地区 

分 类 号：P642.23[天文地球—工程地质学]