中国城镇家庭退休消费困境的统计检验  

Statistical Test on Retirement Consumption Dilemma of China’s Urban Families

作　　者：田青[1] 王楠[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学管理科学与工程学院

出　　处：《统计与决策》2018年第4期87-92,共6页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(15ZDA011);国家社会科学基金后期资助项目(17FJY006)

摘　　要：文章基于中国健康与养老追踪调查（CHARLS）2011年、2013年的数据,利用模糊断点回归模型检验了我国城镇不同收入家庭退休前后消费支出及消费结构的变化。结果表明：（1）不论是高收入家庭和低收入家庭均不存在明显的＂退休消费困境＂,但退休前后家庭消费结构发生了变化,工作相关消费减少、教育培训消费减少、与健康相关的消费增加,即城镇家庭的消费结构总体有所调整,但并没有降低生活水平的迹象;（2）低收入家庭对工作状态的变化更加敏感,其中,衣着支出、交通通讯支出、美容支出比高收入家庭降低更为明显;（3）优越的家庭条件保证高收入家庭各项支出不受资金约束,甚至有了充足的闲暇时间以后,外出就餐消费有增加的倾向。Based on the household data of China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study（CHARLS） from 2011 to 2013,this paper sets up a fuzzy regression discontinuity model to examine the variation of consumption expenditures and consumption structure of urban families with different income levels before and after retirement. Study results show that（1） the＂retirement consumption puzzle＂is not ubiquitous in families with high or low income, but the urban household consumption structure before and after retirement is different： work-related expenditure and expenditures on education and training reduce, while health-related expenditure increases, which means a kind of overall adjustment in the consumption structure, but there is no sign of a reduction in the living standard;（2） the families with low income are more sensitive to the change of working conditions, and their expenditures on clothing, traffic and communication, cosmetics and hairdressing reduce more obviously than those of high-income families;（3）superior family conditions make the expenditures of high-income families unconstrained by capital, thus with sufficient leisure time they have a tendency to increase the expenditure of eating outside.

关 键 词：中国城镇家庭 退休消费困境 不同收入组 模糊断点回归模型 

分 类 号：F063.2[经济管理—政治经济学]