京津冀能源消费碳排放分解比较研究  

Study of Energy Consumption Carbon Emissions in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei

作　　者：宋健[1] 赵怡芳 SONG Jian, ZHAO Yifang(Management and Economics Department, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, Chin)

机构地区：[1]天津大学管理与经济学部,天津300072

出　　处：《重庆理工大学学报（自然科学）》2018年第2期141-148,共8页Journal of Chongqing University of Technology：Natural Science

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2012BAC20B12)

摘　　要：根据北京、天津、河北三地2000—2014年的数据,基于拓展的环境影响因子模型和对数均值指数分解方法,将京津冀的能源消费碳排放分解为人口因素、人均GDP因素、产业结构因素、能源强度因素和能源消费结构5个因素。结果表明:总体上人口和人均GDP促进了碳排放的增长,在总体上产业结构效应、能源强度效应和能源消费结构因素抑制了碳排放的增长。各影响因素年度变化存在差异,其中第二产业和第三产业能源强度对于碳排放的增长具有非常显著的抑制作用是分析研究的重点。为了更好地推进碳减排,应该重新认识经济发展,不断优化升级产业结构,提高能源使用效率。Based on STIRPAT model and LMDI model,this paper decomposed the carbon emissions of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei province into five factors,including population,per capita gross domestic product,industrial structure,energy intensity and energy structure,using the related date of2000-2014. The results reflected that population and per capital gross domestic product showed carbon reinforcement effect and industrial structure,energy intensity and energy structure showed carbon reduction effect. There were differences in the annual changes of each influencing factor,while secondary industry and tertiary industry energy intensity has a very significant inhibitory effect on carbon emissions and they are the focus of the study. We should relearn the economic development,constantly optimize and upgrade the industrial structure,and improve energy efficiency to promote carbon reduction.

关 键 词：碳排放 STIRPAT模型 LMDI模型 能源强度 

分 类 号：TK01[动力工程及工程热物理]