基于信息扩散理论及数据整合的贵州洪灾风险评价研究  

Research on the Flood Risk Assessment of Guizhou Based on Information Diffusion Theory and Data Integration

作　　者：王鹏[1] WANG Peng(Guizhou Academy of Hydraulic Sciences, Guiyang 550002, Chin)

机构地区：[1]贵州省水利科学研究院,贵阳550002

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2018年第2期109-112,共4页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：贵州省农业攻关计划项目(黔科合支撑[2016]2561号);贵州省水利厅科研项目(KT201606)

摘　　要：随着社会经济的发展,单位面积承载的社会财富增加,洪灾对人民群众生产生活的影响也越来越大。以贵州洪灾风险为分析评价对象,选取死亡人口等6个指标数据为基础分析数据,采用基于信息扩散理论及数据整合的方法,对贵州洪灾风险进行评价研究,并在此基础上提出了洪灾风险的应对措施。评价结果表明,洪灾灾情综合指数在34%左右时发生的概率最大,但超过95%后洪灾发生的概率很小。洪灾灾情等级以一般洪涝灾害年为主,发生频率为1.7 a一遇;特别重大洪涝灾害年发生概率最低,发生频率为16.7 a一遇。With the development of social economy, the social wealth of unit area is increasing, and the impact of flood on the production and life of the people is bigger and bigger.The paper takes flood disaster risk in Guizhou Province as the object of analysis and evaluation, selects the data of six indexes such as the dead population as basic analysis data, and uses the method of information diffusion theory and data integration to assess the risk of flood disasters. On this basis, the measures to deal with flood risk are put forward. The evaluation results show that the most probability of the flood disaster comprehensive index is about 34%, but the probability of flood exceeding 95% is very small. The flood disaster grade is dominated by the general flood year, the frequency is 1.7 years. The prohahility of especially serious flood year is the lowest, and the frequency is 16.7 years.

关 键 词：洪灾风险评价 数据整合 信息扩散理论 

分 类 号：TV122.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源]