产业结构变化对矿产资源需求的影响研究  

Impact of industrial structural change on mineral resource demand

作　　者：成金华[1] 朱永光 徐德义[1] 王安建 尤喆 申俊 CHENG Jinhua1, ZHU Yongguang1, XU Deyi1, WANG Anjian2, YOU Zhe1, SHEN Jun(1. Resources Environmental Economic Research Center, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China; 2. Research Center of Strategy of Global Mineral Resources, China Geological Survey, Beijing 100037, Chin)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(武汉)资源环境经济研究中心,武汉430074 [2]中国地质调查局全球矿产资源战略研究中心,北京100037

出　　处：《资源科学》2018年第3期558-566,共9页Resources Science

基　　金：中国地质调查局地质调查项目(121201103000150114)

摘　　要：中国经济进入新常态,产业结构面临着较大的转型,矿产资源的消耗数量仍会继续增长,品种更加多样化,管理更加复杂化。产业结构的变动如何影响矿产资源的需求是亟待解决的科学问题。本文分别构建了26个国家铁矿石消耗与产业结构之间的面板门限回归模型和中国铁矿石、铝、铜、铅、锡、锌等六种金属矿产与产业结构之间的门限模型,对产业结构变化与矿产资源需求之间的门限效应进行研究。主要得出以下几点结论:(1)产业结构变化与矿产资源需求之间存在着显著的多重作用机制,机制变化前后改变了矿产资源需求的主要因素;(2)随着产业结构不断向高技术产业的演进,矿产资源需求也由传统大宗矿产资源转向稀有矿产;(3)中国产业演进过程中金属资源消耗的拐点呈现梯次演进,大宗矿产资源与二次产业结构之间出现多个门槛,部分稀有矿产与二次产业结构之间的门槛也已经出现;(4)中国目前处于矿产资源需求的第二阶段,大宗矿产与高技术产业之间门槛已经出现,稀有金属与高技术产业之间的门槛尚未到来。China＇s economy has entered a new normal and industrial organizations are facing major transformation. Consumption of mineral resources will continue to grow and varieties are more diverse, making mineral resource management more complex. How changes in industrial structure affect the demand of mineral resources is an important scientific problem. Two threshold models are constructed here： （1） a Panel threshold regression model of 26 countries was constructed using data for iron ore consumption and industrial structure in 26 countries; and （2） a threshold model between six kinds of metal minerals and industrial structure, including iron ore, aluminum, copper, lead, tin and zinc, was constructed using Chinese data. We found that there are remarkable multiple mechanisms between changes in industrial structure and demands for mineral resources, which has changed the main factors of mineral resource demand in two different mechanisms. With continuous evolution of industrial institutions to high technology industries, the demand for mineral resources has also shifted from traditional mineral resources to rare minerals. China metal resource consumption appears at an inflection point echelon evolution. There are multi threshold effects between bulk mineral resources and the second industry. Some threshold effects between rare minerals and secondary industry has also appeared. China is now in the second stage of mineral resource demand. The threshold between bulk mineral industry and high technology industry has appeared. The threshold between rare metal and high technology industries has not yet arrived.

关 键 词：产业结构 矿产资源需求 高技术产业 门限效应 

分 类 号：F121.3[经济管理—世界经济]