基于突变级数法的六安市近10年水资源承载力综合评价  

Comprehensive Evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Lu'an City of Anhui Province in Recent 10 Years Based on Mutation Progression Method

作　　者：吴传余 WU Chuan - yu(Hydrology Bureau PSH the Evaporation Experiment Stations of Anhui Provinve, Lu＇an 237011, Anhui, Chin)

机构地区：[1]安徽省水文局淠史杭蒸发实验站,安徽六安237011

出　　处：《水利科技与经济》2018年第3期47-51,共5页Water Conservancy Science and Technology and Economy

摘　　要：为得出适用于安徽省六安市水资源承载力综合评价模型,消除以往评价模型的主观性,基于六安市近10年的实际调查数据,利用突变级数法中的突变理论对六安市近10年的水资源承载力进行综合评价,建立水资源承载力评价综合模型。将突变级数法共分为4种模型,分别为折叠模型、尖点模型、燕尾模型和蝴蝶模型,分别计算该模型的归一化公式用于综合评价水资源承载力,选取当地12种指标。结果表明,该模型计算简单、思路明确,可以弥补静态模型中的不足,同时消除主观评价方法的主观因素,相较于其他方法,在保证计算结果精确性的前提下,大大降低了工作量。经过模型计算后发现,六安市近10年水资源承载力呈先提高后平稳趋势,但水资源承载力普遍较低。在2007~2009年,水资源综合评价指数均在0.88以下,最高时仅在2015年达到弱承载标准,其余时段均为低承载标准。所得结论符合实际情况,证明该模型的科学性,可为当地水资源治理措施的制定提供科学依据。In order to obtain the comprehensive evaluation model of water resources carrying capacity in Lu＇an City of Anhui Province, the subjectivity of the previous evaluation model was eliminated. This paper is based on the actual survey data of Lu＇an City in Anhui Province in recent 10 years. Based on the catastrophe theory in the mutation series method, the water resources carrying capacity of Lu＇an City in Anhui Province was evaluated in the past 10 years. A comprehensive model of water resources carrying capacity evaluation was established. The mutation series method is divided into four models, namely, folding model, cusp model, dovetail model and butterfly model. We chose 12 local indicators and the normalized formula for the comprehensive evaluation of water resources carrying capacity. The result shows that： The model was simple to calculate. We could make up for the lack of static model while eliminating the subjective factors of subjective evaluation methods. Compared with other methods, this model can reduce the workload in ensuring the accuracy of the calculation results. In recent 10 years, water resources carrying capacity was first improved after the smooth trend. The comprehensive evaluation index of water resources was below 0. 88 from 2007 to 2009. At the highest time only in 2015, the water carrying capacity reached a weak carrying standard. The conclusions are in line with the actual situation. The scientific nature of the model was proved. This model can provide scientific basis for the formulation of local water resources management measures.

关 键 词：实际调查 突变级数 水资源承载力综合评价模型 主观因素 

分 类 号：F293[经济管理—国民经济]