前景理论下道路网络的级联失效演变  

Cascading Failure Simulation of Road Network Based on Prospect Theory

作　　者：刘伟[1] 陈科全[1] 刘玉印[2] 田宗忠[3] LIU Wei;CHEN Ke-quan;LIU Yu-yin;TIAN Zong-zhong(1. School of Transport, Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing 400074, China; 2. Chongqing Traffic Management Bureau, Chongqing 400054, China; 3. University of Nevada, Reno, NV 89557, US)

机构地区：[1]重庆交通大学交通运输学院,重庆400074 [2]重庆市公安局交通管理局,重庆400054 [3]内华达大学里诺分校

出　　处：《交通运输系统工程与信息》2018年第1期145-151,共7页Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology

基　　金：重庆市社会事业与民生保障科技创新专项项目(cstc2015shms-ztzx30015);重庆市教委科学技术研究项目(KJ1705136);重庆交通大学研究生教育创新基金项目(2017S0118)~~

摘　　要：为了避免城市交通网络在突发事件的影响下陷入大范围的瘫痪,本文提出了一种将路径改变行为和失效持续时间相结合的级联失效模型.模型以需求的演变定义了初始荷载,提出了失效时间的概念,以及网络交通量的延迟加载方式;然后,考虑出行者在面对突发事件的主观因素,基于前景理论确定了负载的动态重新分配方法;最后,采用MSA算法给出了模型求解步骤.仿真结果表明:随着路段失效时间的增加,驾驶员的路径改变概率有显著差异;该模型可定量的分析路网在不同的失效时间和初始需求下,由于路段造成的失效演变过程;在考虑路段方向性时,路段的2个方向均瘫痪后,相继失效速度明显加快.本文为研究突发事件的管理方法提供了一定的理论依据.In order to avoid the large-scale crash of urban traffic network, which caused by traffic accident,cascading failure model which including the behavior of route change and the duration of incident is established.The initial load is identified by the evolution of traffic demand. The duration of failure and lazy loading method are introduced. When facing traffic accident, the subjective factor is considered. Then, based on prospect theory, we determine the dynamic way for redistribution of load. Finally, the solution process of this model by using MSA algorithm is given. The simulation results show that with the increase of failure time, the probability of path change have remarkable difference. Under different failure time and initial demand, the results can be used to quantitative analysis the evolution of cascading failure which caused by section. When direction of road has been considered, once the two direction of road have been failed, the speed of cascading failure will obviously paced up.In conclusion, this paper shed new light on the management of traffic accident.

关 键 词：交通工程 级联失效 动态负载加载 前景理论 事故持续时间 

分 类 号：U491-31[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]