地方政府债务促进了区域经济增长吗?——基于地方政府“招拍挂”工具变量视角  

Does Local Government Debt Promote Regional Economic Growth?

作　　者：陈志刚 吴国维 CHEN Zhi-gang, WU Guo-wei(Institute for the Development of Central China, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, Chin)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学中国中部发展研究院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《现代财经（天津财经大学学报）》2018年第4期48-60,共13页Modern Finance and Economics：Journal of Tianjin University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(13AJL005);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(12JJD790002)

摘　　要：日益膨胀的地方政府债务是否仍然能促进经济增长是一个值得研究的问题,然而在实证中却面临政府债务与经济增长互为因果关系所导致的内生性难题。本文采用我国各省区政府信息平台2010-2015年地方政府债务真实数据,以地方政府"招拍挂"出让价款作为工具变量剔除内生性,探讨了地方政府债务对区域经济增长的影响。结果表明:地方政府债务显著促进了经济增长,但是二者呈现倒U型关系,债务率较低地区地方债务对经济增长的促进作用显著,而债务率高地区这种作用不明显。同时,债务对经济增长的影响还因公共投资对私人投资的挤出效应和政府投资的资源配置效率存在区域异质性。因此,简单扩大举债规模以刺激经济增长的方式不可取,地方政府应根据负债程度和地域差异调整负债策略,并提高债务资金利用效率。Whether the growing local government debt can still promote economic growth is a question worthy of study,but it is confronted with the endogenous problems caused by simultaneity between government debt and economic growth in empirical research.Based on the real data of the provincial government＇s debt in 2010—2015,the local government＇s＂bidding and auction＂price is used as a tool variable to eliminate the endogeneity to discuss the impact of local government debt in this paper.The results show that local government debt still contributes to economic growth throughout the sample period.However,this promotion is only significant in the northeast,while it is not significant in the east and west.In the central region,local debt significantly inhibits economic growth.In addition,local debt in areas with low debt rates has a significant effect on the economy,and the role of areas with high debt rates is not significant.Therefore,the blind expansion of the scale of debt to stimulate economic growth is not desirable.The local government should adjust the scale of debt based on regional characteristics and debt levels and improve the efficiency of debt funds.

关 键 词：地方政府债务 区域经济增长 内生性 工具变量 

分 类 号：F810.7[经济管理—财政学]