基于BRT_DC_Pd模型的土地利用模拟研究  

Simulation of Landuse Based on BRT_DC_Pd Model

作　　者：王宇航 于强[1] 岳德鹏[1] 张启斌[1] 马欢[1] WANG Yuhang YU Qiang YUE Depeng ZHANG Qibin MA Huan(Beijing Key Laboratory of Precision Forestry, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, Chin)

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学精准林业北京市重点实验室,北京100083

出　　处：《农业机械学报》2018年第3期225-234,共10页Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41371189);"十二五"国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAD16B00)

摘　　要：通过对Dyna-CLUE模型进行改进,嵌入BRT模型和Patch-dynamics模型,形成BRT_Dyna-CLUE_Patchdynamics模型。以生态脆弱区典型县域磴口县为研究区,基于2006年磴口县土地利用情况,应用BRT_Dyna-CLUE_Patch-dynamics模型,对磴口县2016年的土地利用状况进行模拟预测,并与目前应用较多的Logistic_CA_Markov模型进行对比验证。结果表明,Logistic_CA_Markov模型模拟结果的Kappa系数为0.721 4,BRT_Dyna-CLUE_Patchdynamics模型模拟结果的Kappa系数为0.782 6,2个组合模型的模拟结果精度较高,均与真实解译结果具有高度一致性,但BRT_Dyna-CLUE_Patch-dynamics模型模拟精度更高,结果更优。因此,将BRT_Dyna-CLUE_Patchdynamics模型应用于当地土地利用变化模拟预测,具有一定可行性,可为当地生态治理以及相关政策的实施提供一定的参考。The BRT_Dyna-CLUE_Patch-dynamics model was formed by improving Dyna-CLUE model,by embedding BRT model and Patch-dynamics model. Based on the landuse situation in Dengkou County in 2006,a case study was conducted in Dengkou County,a typical county in the ecologically fragile region. The BRT_Dyna-CLUE_Patch-dynamics model was used to simulate the landuse situation in 2016 in Dengkou County and compared with the Logistic_CA_Markov model which was currently used more.The results showed that the Kappa coefficient of the Logistic_CA_Markov model was 0. 721 4,and the Kappa coefficient of the BRT_Dyna-CLUE_Patch-dynamics model was 0. 782 6. The simulation results of the two combinatorial models were highly accurate and both were highly consistent with the real interpretation results. BRT_Dyna-CLUE_Patch-dynamics model had high simulation accuracy and good result. Therefore,it is feasible to apply the BRT_Dyna-CLUE_Patch-dynamics model to the simulation and forecast of local landuse change in order to provide some reference for the implementation of local ecological control and related policies.

关 键 词：Dyna-CLUE 增强回归树 Patch-dynamics 磴口县 土地利用变化模拟 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]