中国旅游业碳排放及其影响因素研究——来自2005～2015年省级面板数据的证据  

A Research on Tourism Industrial Carbon Emissions and Its Influential Factors in China: Evidences from Chinese Provincial Panel Data (2005～2015)

作　　者：查建平[1] 舒皓羽 李园园 贺腊梅 ZHA Jianping, SHU I-Iaoyu, HE Lamei(School of Tourism, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, Chin)

机构地区：[1]四川大学旅游学院,四川成都610065

出　　处：《旅游科学》2017年第5期1-16,共16页Tourism Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"乡村旅游地农户旅游经营行为及其效率提升路径研究:以四川省为例"(71704125);四川大学中央高校基本科研业务费"资源与环境约束视角下乡村旅游用地效率;模式及政策研究"(SKQY201772);国家旅游局面上项目"‘社会-经济-环境’系统耦合视角下乡村旅游用地效率;模式及政策研究"(17TABG012)

摘　　要：本文参照旅游消费剥离系数法,构建了旅游业碳排放量评估模型,对2005~2015年中国省级旅游业碳排放量进行估算,在此基础上,进一步利用面板数据估计模型检验与分析影响旅游业碳排放强度的因素。研究结果显示:2005~2015年间,各省市之间的旅游业碳排放量差异巨大,但存在明显的收敛趋势;多数省市旅游业碳排放强度呈现下滑趋势,在整个样本时期内,对应旅游业低碳发展质量明显提升;不同省市的旅游业碳排放结构及其变化趋势存在差异,但旅游交通消费是各省市旅游业碳排放量攀升的主要动因;社会经济发展水平、服务业发展水平、对外开放水平、区位条件及城市化等因素对旅游业碳排放强度具有显著的正向影响,旅游资源禀赋对旅游业碳排放强度的影响并不显著;上一期的旅游业碳排放强度对当期排放强度具有显著正向影响,旅游业碳排放强度变化具有明显的滞后效应。The paper built an evaluation model for the carbon emissions of tourism industry by using tourist-consuming-stripping-coefficient method, estimated the carbon emissions of tourism industries of 30 provinces in China from 2005 to 2015, and analyzed the factors affecting the carbon intensity of tourism industry by using static and dynamic panel data estimation model respectively. The results are： 1 ） Carbon emissions of tourism industry vary greatly among the subjected province with an obvious converging trend. 2） The carbon intensity of most provinces is declining and the quality of low-carbon development is significantly improved. 3） The tourism carbon structure and its changing trends differs from province to province with tourist traffic consumption as the main cause resulting carbon emissions rising for the tourism industry of China. 4 ） Social economic development level, service industry development level, economic opening, and urbanization and location condition have significant positive impacts on the carbon intensity of tourism industry while the positive impact of tourism resource endowment is not; the tourism-industry carbon intensity during last period have significant positive impact on the carbon intensity during the current period, and the change of carbon intensity of tourism industry has an obvious lagging effect.

关 键 词：旅游业碳排放 面板数据 动态模型 影响因素 

分 类 号：F592[经济管理—旅游管理]