国内价值链与区域经济周期协同：来自中国的经验证据  

National Value Chain and Interregional Business Cycle Synchronization:Evidence from China

作　　者：邵朝对 李坤望 苏丹妮[2] SHAO Chaodui, LI Kunwang and SU Danni(School of Economics, Nankai Universit)

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院国际经济贸易系 [2]南开大学经济学院国际经济研究所

出　　处：《经济研究》2018年第3期187-201,共15页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：本文为国家自然科学基金面上项目(编号：71473133)的阶段性成果.

摘　　要：本文采用2002年、2007年和2010年中国30个省区区域间投入产出表,就国内价值链对区域经济周期协同性的影响进行了全方位考察。结果表明,国内价值链贸易增强了中国地区间经济周期的联动性,而在控制国内价值链贸易之后,区际贸易却降低了两地区产出的协同程度,区际贸易具有的Frankel-Rose效应主要是国内价值链贸易的作用结果。在引入省区官员交流等工具变量控制内生性后,结果仍是稳健的。同时,国内价值链贸易的传导效应不仅受价值链分工地位差异的影响,而且呈现出显著的危机前后时段特征和东部与中西部内外空间特征。进一步纳入全球价值链后发现,全球价值链贸易对国内价值链贸易的正向经济周期协同效应具有放大作用,而传统国际贸易对传统区际贸易的负向经济周期冲击存在叠加效应,国内价值链联结的区际分工网络是保证中国经济外向型发展过程中各地区之间经济紧密联动、协同共进的重要力量。Summary： With the rise of value-chain trade, its role in global business cycle synchronization is now the focus of international macroeconomics. Most scholars have investigated the effect of value-chain trade on the correlation of global economies under the Frankel-Rose （FR） effect framework. Burstein et al. （2008） , Ng （2010） and Duval et al. （2016） consider that value-chain trade can change the role of the FR effect, and that it can significantly improve bilateral output co- movement, but after controlling it, traditional bilateral trade has no significant--even negative--influence on bilateral output co-movement. However, Di and Levchenko （2010） and Pan et al. （2015） argue that value-chain trade amplifies the FR effect. Either view indicates that the global value chain （GVC） has a profound impact on global business cycle synchronization. During its integration into the global production system, China＇s national value chain （NVC） has developed rapidly. The NVC is a professional network production mode corresponding to the GVC. Specifically, the NVC is led and governed by local firms, which integrate domestic raw material supply, component production, product assembly and logistics distribution based on the domestic market. Thus, an important issue is the relationship between NVC and interregional business cycle synchronization, in other words, whether China＇s regional economies will be linked by the NVC. Although Su （2016）, Lee ＆ Pan （2016） and Li （2016） explored the NVC, none of them researched the relationship between NVC and interregional business cycle synchronization. This paper is not a simple repetition of the literature on the linkage between GVC and international business cycle synchronization because there are two significant differences between interregional and international business cycle synchronization. First, the subject status is different. Regions within a country must use the same currency, and cannot use different monetary and exchange po

关 键 词：国内价值链 经济周期 区域经济协同 全球价值链 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]