基于系统动力学的突发事件网络谣言治理研究  

Research on Internet Rumors about Emergencies Based on the System Dynamics Model

作　　者：殷飞 张鹏[1] 兰月新[1] 夏一雪[1] 张琦[1] 李增[1] YIN Fei, ZHANG Peng, LAN Yue-xin, XIA Yi-xue, ZHANG Qi, LI Zeng(Chinese People ＂s Armed Police Force Academy, Langfang 065000, Chin)

机构地区：[1]中国人民武装警察部队学院,河北廊坊065000

出　　处：《情报科学》2018年第4期57-63,共7页Information Science

基　　金：教育部人文社科基金(17YJC630214);国家社科基金(15CXW015);全国统计科学研究计划重点项目(2017LZ37);河北省科技计划项目(15275603)

摘　　要：【目的/意义】通过定量研究,分析影响突发事件网络谣言热度的相关因素,找准谣言在网络社交平台的演变规律,科学有效控制网络谣言所带领的负面效果。【方法/过程】利用系统动力学建模方法,从网民、媒体、政府三个维度展开对谣言热度的研究,并使用Vensim PLE软件对构建的谣言热度模型进行仿真分析。【结果/结论】由仿真结果可知,政府公信力、媒体影响率、网民群体极化程度等变量都对突发事件网络谣言的传播具有较大影响。根据仿真分析,可为政府部门应对突发事件网络谣言提出针对性的对策建议。【Purpose/significance】Through quantitative research, this study analyzes the factors that influence the heat of Internet rumor in emergencies. Rule of rumors＇ evolution for the social network would be identified precisely, and scientific and effective measures should be taken to deal with the negative impact of network rumors.【Method/process】This study uses the system dynamics method to study the factors affecting the heat of Internet rumor respectively from the public, media and government. At the same time, Vensim PLE is used to analyze the simulation model.【Result/conclusion】According to the result, the credibility of the government, the influence of the media and the polarization of net citizen have significant effects on Internet rumor transmission. Finally, according to the results of the simulation model, the relevant countermeasures can be put forward for the authorities to respond to the Internet rumor.

关 键 词：系统动力学 舆情应对 网络谣言 突发事件 

分 类 号：G206.3[文化科学—传播学]