1956-2015年高邮市气温和降水量变化特征研究  

Study on variation characteristics of air temperature and precipitation from 1956 to 2015 in Gaoyou City,Jiangsu Province

作　　者：王雨斐 方国华[1] 闻昕[1] 张钰[1] WANG Yufei, FANG Guohua, WEN Xin, ZHANG Yu(College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, Chin)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水利水电学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水资源与水工程学报》2018年第1期111-116,共6页Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0405900);国家自然科学基金项目(51609061);江苏高校优势学科建设工程项目

摘　　要：综合小波分析等多种统计方法,从趋势、突变、周期多方面解析高邮市1956-2015年气温、降水量时间序列近60年的变化特征。结果表明:近60年高邮市整体呈增温趋势,线性递增率约为0.30℃/10a,年平均气温自20世纪80年代中期开始波动上升,而年降水量波动平稳,略有上升,线性递增率约为2.2 mm/10a;滑动T检验结合MannKendall检验得出气温在1998年左右出现增暖突变,未检测到降水量变异点;Morlet小波变换说明年平均气温在55a时间尺度下周期性最为显著,年降水量周期变化存在56、43、20~30、9a这4类较明显的时间尺度,其中56a周期震荡最强烈,20~30a周期性最弱;气温主周期与降水量第一主周期(56a)相关。A variety of statistical methods such as wavelet analysis were used to have a thorough grasp of the variation characteristics of air temperature and precipitation from 1956 to 2015,of the recent 60 years,in Gaoyou City from the aspects of trend,mutation and period. The results showed that the air temperature in Gaoyou City has been on the rise generally in the past 60 years at a linear rate of about 0. 30℃ per 10 years. The mean annual air temperature started to fluctuate in an upward trend in the mid-1980 s,while the annual precipitation fluctuated steadily with a slight linear increase rate of about 2. 2 mm per 10 years;the warming mutation of the air temperature was detected to appear around 1998 by moving t-test and Mann-Kendall test,while the mutation of the precipitation was not detected; Morlet wavelet transformation showed that the periodicity of the mean annual air temperature is the most remarkable at the time scale of 55 years,and the annual precipitation had four obvious periodic oscillations,which are 56 years,43 years,20-30 years and 9 years. The periodic oscillation seemed to be the strongest at the time scale of 55 years and the weakest at the time scale of 20-30 years; the main period of the air temperature is consistent with the first main period（ 56 years） of the precipitation.

关 键 词：气温 降水 变化特征分析 MORLET小波 高邮市 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]