二次重现期在暴雨洪涝灾害中的应用研究  

Analysis of risk probability of different duration rainstorm disasters based on secondary return period

作　　者：范嘉炜 袁明道[1,2,3] 马妍博 潘展钊[1,2,3] 张旭辉 FAN Jiawei1,2,3, YUAN Mingdao1,2,3, MA Yanbo1,2,3, PAN Zhanzhao1,2,3, ZHANG Xuhui1,2,3(1. Guangdong Research lustitute of Water Resources and Hydropower, Guaugzhou 510635, China; 2. Dam Safiy Technology Management Center of Guangdong Province, Guaugzhou 510635, China; 3. Guangdong Technical Research Centre of Flood Disaster Emergency, Guaugzhou 510635, Chin)

机构地区：[1]广东省水利水电科学研究院,广东广州510635 [2]广东省大坝安全技术管理中心,广东广州510635 [3]广东省山洪灾害突发事件应急技术研究中心,广东广州510635

出　　处：《水资源与水工程学报》2018年第1期149-154,共6页Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering

基　　金：广东省水利科技创新项目(2014-09)

摘　　要：为了在暴雨洪涝灾害事件中实现城市防灾减灾的合理规划和有效预警,构建了不同历时降雨组合联合分布模型,应用Copula函数与二次重现期原理,估算不同降雨组合下的联合重现期、同现重现期、二次重现期值,以及在不同重现期下的降雨设计值。结果表明:研究区设计暴雨值重现期的分布规律呈现为联合重现期>单变量重现期>二次重现期>同现重现期,在P1h&P1d中,二次重期的估算设计暴雨值的误差范围为0.22%~1.74%,在P1h&P3d中,二次重现期误差范围为0.42%~1.89%。结论认为,两种传统重现期在估算设计暴雨值时存在偏差,二次重现期能够更准确地描述实际暴雨事件,并起到了既满足防洪排涝设计要求,又可以降低工程经济成本的作用。In order to complete the reasonable plan and effective early warning of urban disaster in rainstorm and flood disaster, the joint rainfall distribution model of different precipitation duration is constructed. Using the Copula function and the principle of the second recurrence period, this paper estimated the joint recurrence period, co-occurrence period and recurrence period under different rainfall combinations, and the design rainfall value was also estimated under different recurrence period. It is concluded that the distribution law of the design recurrence days of rainstorm in the study area can be summarized as the joint return period 〉 the univariate return period 〉 the secondary return period 〉 co - occurrence return period. In P1h - Pxa, the error range of the secondary return period is 0.22% - 1.74%. In P 1h - P 30, the error range is 0.42% - 1.89%. It is considered that there are estimation error between the two kinds of traditional return periods when estimating the design rainstorm value, and the second return period can describe the actual rainstorm more accurately. The design value which is based on the secondary return period can meet the design requirements of flood control and reduce the economic cost of the project

关 键 词：COPULA函数 二次重现期 暴雨洪涝灾害 城市排涝 降雨组合 

分 类 号：TV122.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源]