基于DBN的深水井控人机界面系统可靠性分析  

Reliability analysis of deep-water drilling man-machine interface system based on DBN

作　　者：陈洁[1,2] 陈国明 李新宏[1] 杨冬冬[1] 耿凯月[1] 刘长鑫 CHEN Jie1,2, CHEN Guoming1, LI Xinhong1, YANG Dongdong1, GENG Kaiyue1, LIU Changxin1(1 Centre for Offshore Engineering and Safety Technology, China University of Petroleum, Qingdao Shandong 266580, China ;2 Safety Supervision Department, Tianjin Airlines Corporate, Tianjin 300300, Chin)

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(华东)海洋油气装备与安全技术研究中心,山东青岛266580 [2]天津航空有限责任公司安全监察部,天津300300

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2018年第1期124-129,共6页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家重点研发计划课题(2017YFC0804501)

摘　　要：为改善深水井控人机配合情况,运用动态贝叶斯网络（DBN）方法分析深水井控人机界面系统的可靠性。基于深水井控人机交互流程,构建系统安全屏障结构图,并转化为对应的DBN模型;依据DBN方法的时间属性,研究系统及各子系统不维修与维修状态下可靠度时间分布;借助贝叶斯后验推理及敏感性分析能力,辨识人机界面系统薄弱风险点。研究结果表明：维修因素是影响深水井控人机界面系统可靠性的关键因素;维修条件下,人因可靠性对深水井控人机界面系统可靠性的影响最大。For the sake of improving human-machine cooperation,a reliability analysis of deep-water drilling man-machine interface system was carried out based on DBN approach. According to human-machine interaction procedures,safety barrier structure of the system was built and converted into a DBN model. Based on time-property of DBN,relationships between reliability of both system and subsystems and time,under non-maintenance and maintenance conditions,were analyzed. Using posterior reasoning and sensitivity analysis of DBN,weak risk points of human-machine surface system were identified. The results show that the maintenance is the key factor affecting the reliability of human-machine surface system,and that under the maintenance condition,human factor has the greatest influence on the reliability of deep-water drilling man-machine interface system.

关 键 词：深水井控 人机界面 动态贝叶斯网络(DBN) 安全屏障 可靠性分析 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]