一种城市燃气管网泄漏风险动态计算模型  

A model for dynamic risk calculation of urban gas pipeline

作　　者：杨永胜 钟少波[1] 余致辰 李垚萱 黄全义[1] YANG Yongsheng ,ZHONG Shaobo ,YU Zhichen ,LI Yaoxuan ,HUANG Quanyi(Institute of Public Safety Research, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, Chin)

机构地区：[1]清华大学公共安全研究院

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2018年第1期167-172,共6页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家十二五科技支撑项目(2015BAK10B01,2015BAK12B03)

摘　　要：为科学地评估并及时控制城市燃气管网泄漏的风险,采用贝叶斯网络（BN）与地理信息系统（GIS）相结合的方法,建立燃气管网泄漏风险动态计算模型。首先,利用故障树（FT）系统地分析管网泄漏事故,考虑到管网服役时间和外界干扰事件的动态性,将建成的FT映射到BN中,进而动态计算燃气管网的泄漏概率;然后运用GIS技术对管网泄漏后果的严重度指标进行赋值,并将动态泄漏概率和后果严重度值结合,建立上述模型;最后,以某区域的燃气管网为研究对象,验证该模型的有效性。结果表明：该模型能够综合时间因素以及突发事件对管网泄漏的影响,实现对管网泄漏风险的动态计算和可视化显示。To effectively evaluate and timely control the leakage risk of urban gas pipeline,the paper was aimed at building a dynamic risk model based on BN and GIS technology. A fault tree（ FT） model was built initially to analyze the leakage accident systematically,subsequently the FT model was mapped into a BN considering the dynamism of service time and human interference to calculate dynamic probabilities of gas pipeline leakage. In addition,the severity of the consequence of the gas pipeline leakage was assigned automatically by the GIS spatial analysis. Finally,a dynamic risk model of urban gas pipeline was built by combining dynamic probabilities and severity of leakage,and the effectiveness of the model was also validated through a case study of the gas pipeline system in a certain area. The results illustrate that this model can calculate and visualize the risk of gas pipeline leakage dynamically considering the effects of both time and emergency events on the leakage.

关 键 词：城市燃气管网 泄漏概率 后果严重度 风险动态计算 贝叶斯网络(BN) 地理信息系统(GIS) 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]