考虑复杂天气风险源的电力系统可用输电能力评估  

Assessment on available transfer capability considering complex weather risk sources

作　　者：谢敏[1] 尹一江 杜余昕 程培军[1] 刘明波[1] XIE Min,YIN Yijiang, DU Yuxin, CHENG Peijun, LIU Mingbo(School of Electric Power, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510640, Chin)

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学电力学院,广东广州510640

出　　处：《电力自动化设备》2018年第4期16-22,共7页Electric Power Automation Equipment

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2013CB228205);国家自然科学基金青年基金资助项目(50907023)~~

摘　　要：引入越限惩罚型变权熵理论,建立能够综合考虑雷电、降雨、风、气温、相对湿度等多种天气因素的复杂天气风险源模型,利用该模型计算相应的综合气象因子;基于电气设备的健康指数模型,提出天气风险源修正架空线路故障率的方法;采用非序贯蒙特卡罗仿真,对考虑复杂天气风险源的电力系统可用输电能力进行评估。采集我国南方沿海地区实际气象数据,并在IEEE 118节点系统进行仿真,结果表明所提方法是有效的。Based on the variable weight entropy theory with off-limit punishment type, a model of complex weather risk sources is built, which considers multiple weather factors, such as thunder and lightning, rainfall, wind, tempera- ture, relative humidity, etc. The corresponding comprehensive meteorological factor is calculated by the model. Based on the health index model of electrical equipment, a method of correcting the failure rate of overhead lines by using the weather risk sources is proposed. The non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation is adopted to evaluate the ATC （Available Transfer Capability） of power system with the consideration of complex weather risk sources. The actual meteorological data in the coastal area of southern China are collected and simulated in the IEEE 118-bus system, which verifies the effectiveness of the proposed method.

关 键 词：电力系统 可用输电能力 变权熵理论 复杂天气风险源 健康指数模型 非序贯蒙特卡罗仿真 最优潮流 

分 类 号：TM761[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]