基于气象关键因子的广东省橡胶产量预报  

Forecast of Rubber Production Based on Meteorological Key Factors in Guangdong Province

作　　者：黄珍珠[1] 李寅[1] 陈慧华[1] 沈平[1] HUANG Zhenzhu, LI Yin, CHEN Huihua, SHEN Ping(Guangdong Climate Center, Guangzhou, Guangdong 51008)

机构地区：[1]广东省气候中心,广东广州510080

出　　处：《热带农业科学》2018年第2期107-112,共6页Chinese Journal of Tropical Agriculture

基　　金：国内外作物产量气象预报专项资助

摘　　要：气象条件是橡胶产量波动的重要影响因素,为了开展橡胶气象服务及产量预报,利用1992~2014年广东省橡胶产量资料和气象资料,通过相关分析及考虑生物学意义,确定了影响广东橡胶产量的关键气象因子是1~2月最低气温平均、5月下旬至6月中旬雨量、5~9月最大风速最大值区域平均,在此基础上用多元线性回归方法建立了广东省橡胶产量预报模型,对橡胶产量进行中期预估预报和后期最终预报。模型历史回代检验平均准确率90%;对2014年橡胶单产进行试预报检验,预估预报和最终预报准确率≥94%,预报准确率较高,表明此方法建立的模型可在业务和服务上应用。Meteorological conditions are important factors affecting the fluctuation of rubber production. In order to carry out the rubber meteorological service and rubber production forecast for rubber plantations, the rubber production data and meteorological data of Guangdong Province in 1992-2004 were analyzed with correlation analysis to determine the key meteorological factors affecting the rubber production in consideration of biological significance. The results showed that the key meteorological factors were the mean minimum temperature in January to February, precipitation in late May to mid June, and mean zonal maximum wind speed in May to September. These key factors were used to establish a rubber yield forecasting model for rubber plantations in Guangdong by using multiple linear regression method to generate mid-term preliminary and final forecasts of rubber production in rubber plantations. The average forecasting accuracy of this model fitting the historical data was 90%. The rubber production in 2014 were forecast by using this model, and the preliminary forecasting and final forecasting accuracies were 94% or higher. This high forecasting accuracy indicates the model established can be used for forecasting of rubber production in Guangdong Province.

关 键 词：广东 关键气象因子 产量预报 橡胶 

分 类 号：S162.54[农业科学—农业气象学]