1984～2050年中国农业剩余劳动力存量估算和预测  

Estimation and Prediction of China's Agricultural Surplus Labor Stock in 1984-2050

作　　者：赵卫军[1] 焦斌龙[2,3] 韩媛媛[1] Zhao Weijun, Jiao Binlong, Han Yuanyuan

机构地区：[1]山西财经大学经济学院 [2]山西财经大学 [3]山西省人民政府发展研究中心

出　　处：《人口研究》2018年第2期54-69,共16页Population Research

基　　金：本文得到国家社科基金青年项目“生产要素流动视角下的城乡一体化发展机制研究”(批准号：16CJL024)和山西省软科学研究项目“矢量评价视角下山西省城镇化协调耦合推进研究”(项目编号：2017041033-6)的支持.

摘　　要：由于学界对农业劳动力合理工日和有效工日的界定存在差别,导致用工日折算法测度农业剩余劳动力存量得出的结果争议也很大。文章通过构建效用工日折算模型对工日折算法进行一定程度的修正:(1)引入季节性指数和天气变化指数来确定合理工作负荷工日;(2)以"看齐意识"下的效用最大化为基础确定效用最大化工日;(3)引入农业劳动力知识系数和农业技术指数来确定农业劳动力的有效工日;(4)在合理工作负荷工日和有效工日的基础上确定剩余工日;(5)通过劳动生产率的两种表示方法把农业剩余劳动时间折算成农业剩余劳动力数量。此外,该模型对1984~2050年中国农业剩余劳动力存量进行估算和预测,并在与其他学者研究比较的同时做出评价和分析。It has been controversial in measuring stock of agricultural surplus labor using man-days conversion method clue to different definitions of reasonable and effective man-days of the agricultural labor force.ln this paper,we make corrections to the man-days conversion method by constructing the utility man-days conversion model.The seasonal index and the weather changing index are introduced to determine the reasonable working load man-days.On the premise of utility maximization of par consciousness, the utility maximization man-clays is determined. Agricultural labor force knowledge coefficient and agricultural technology index are introduced 1o determine the effective man-days of agricultural labor force. The surplus man-clays are determined on the basis of reasonable working load man-days and effective man-days.The agricultural surplus labor time is converted into the quantity of agriculture surplus labor force through two kinds of representation of productivity.ln addition, China＇s agricultural surplus labor stock in 1984-2050 is estimated and predicted by the model.The analyses are evaluated by comparing the results with those of other scholars.

关 键 词：工日折算法 农业剩余劳动力 农业剩余劳动时间 效用工日折算模型 效用最大化 

分 类 号：F323.6[经济管理—产业经济]