前瞻年龄视角下的人口老龄化及其对我国医疗费用的影响  

Population Ageing and Its Effect on Total Health Expenditure: A Prospective Age Perspective

作　　者：杨昕[1] 左学金[2] 王美凤 Yang Xin, Zuo Xuejin, Wang Meifeng

机构地区：[1]上海社会科学院城市与人口发展研究所 [2]上海社会科学院经济研究所 [3]上海市卫生和健康发展研究中心

出　　处：《人口研究》2018年第2期84-98,共15页Population Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大项目"公平;活力与可持续--老龄化社会的经济特征及支持体系研究"(71490734)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：随着人口平均预期寿命的不断延长,静态的研究视角有可能夸大了人口老龄化的负面影响。文章通过日历年龄和前瞻年龄的不同视角预测了我国2010~2050年的人口老龄化发展趋势,并据此测算了不同视角下老年人口的卫生费用。结果表明,在前瞻年龄的视角下,我国未来的人口老龄化速度较日历年龄视角下的人口老龄化速度明显放缓,且老年人口的卫生费用也将大幅降低。这一研究结论的社会经济含义有二,一是前瞻年龄下劳动年龄人口和老年人口比会发生变化,二是年龄别医疗费用取决于前瞻年龄,将会节约医疗费用。要使这两种社会经济含义的价值得以实现,必须要从社会政策的改革入手,如鼓励延迟退休年龄、转变卫生服务理念以及改革卫生服务体系等。With the continuous extension of life expectancy,the negative impact of population ageing may be exaggerated by using a static age perspective.ln this paper,we try to forecast the population ageing trend of China under different age criteria in 2010-2050 and analyze their effects on total health expenditure.The results show that ageing rate measured with prospective age would be much lower than that measured with chronological age and the health expenditure for the elderly would be considerably reduced.The implications are that the ratio of labor force to the elderly population would change, which would reduce health expenditure.However,in achieving that,it is necessary to promote the relevant social policies such as encouraging the postponement of retirement age, changing the concept of health service,and reforming the health service system.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 日历年龄 前瞻年龄 卫生总费用 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学]