考虑灾情不确定性的电网应急响应失效评估方法  

Assessment Method for Power Grid Emergency Response Failure Considering Uncertainty of Disaster

作　　者：于峰[1] 李向阳[1] YU Feng , LI Xiangyang(School of Management, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001, Chin)

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工业大学管理学院,哈尔滨150001

出　　处：《系统管理学报》2018年第2期244-253,共10页Journal of Systems & Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大研究计划重点项目(91024028;91746207);国家自然科学基金面上项目(71473058;71774043)

摘　　要：作为关键基础设施之一,电网应急管理关系到城市的安全与稳定。一旦未能及时有效地抢修受损电网,可能会导致较为严重的后果。在不确定灾情下,电网应急响应系统将面临更大的风险。在提升应急能力的同时,关注电网应急响应失效尤为重要。因此,考虑灾情的不确定性并基于相关研究,采用故障树分析法评估电网应急响应失效。基于电网应急响应系统阐述了电网应急响应失效的定义与特征,并构建了一般灾情下的电网应急响应失效故障树。阐述了基于下行法的最小电网应急响应失效集生成方法,并结合模糊语义分析法、证据理论的合成规则与故障树的概率计算方法评估不确定灾情下电网应急响应失效的发生概率。最后,以Z市电网为例,基于目标灾情所简化的电网应急响应失效故障树,阐述了本文所提方法的可行性与有效性。As one of the critical infrastructures, power grid emergency management concerns urban safety and stability. Once the damaged power grid cannot be repaired timely and effectively, it may lead to relatively serious consequences. In uncertain disaster situations, the power grid emergency response system will be at greater risk. It is of particular importance to focus on power grid emergency response failure （PGERF） while improving the emergency response capability. Therefore, the fault-tree analysis method is adopted in this paper to assess PGERF considering the uncertainty of disaster, based on related studies. First, the definition and features of PGERF are illustrated based on the power grid emergency response system, and a PGERF fault-tree for general disaster is built. Then, the generation method for the minimal PGERF set is illustrated based on the top-down method. The fuzzy linguistic analysis method, rules of the evidence theory and the probability calculation method of fault-tree are integrated to assess the probability of the occurrence of PGERF in uncertain disaster situations. Finally, a case study on the power grid of Z City is given to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method based on the simplified PGERF fault-tree in the target disaster situation.

关 键 词：应急响应 发生概率 不确定性 失效评估 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]