Real-time 3-D space numerical shake prediction for earthquake early warning  

作　　者：Tianyun Wang Xing Jin Yandan Huang Yongxiang Wei 

机构地区：[1]Institute of Engineering Mechanics,China Earthquake Administration,Harbin 150080,China [2]Key Laboratory of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,China Earthquake Administration,Harbin 150080,China [3]Fujian Earthquake Agency,Fuzhou 350003,China

出　　处：《Earthquake Science》2017年第5期269-281,共13页地震学报（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Key Technology Research and Development Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China(grant No.2014BAK03B02);Science for Earthquake Resilience(grant Nos XH16021 and XH16022Y)

摘　　要：In earthquake early warning systems, real-time shake prediction through wave propagation simulation is a promising approach. Compared with traditional methods, it does not suffer from the inaccurate estimation of source parameters. For computation efficiency, wave direction is assumed to propagate on the 2-D surface of the earth in these methods. In fact, since the seismic wave propagates in the 3-D sphere of the earth, the 2-D space modeling of wave direction results in inaccurate wave estimation. In this paper, we propose a 3-D space numerical shake pre- diction method, which simulates the wave propagation in 3-D space using radiative transfer theory, and incorporate data assimilation technique to estimate the distribution of wave energy. 2011 Tohoku earthquake is studied as an example to show the validity of the proposed model. 2-D space model and 3-D space model are compared in this article, and the prediction results show that numerical shake prediction based on 3-D space model can estimate the real-time ground motion precisely, and overprediction is alleviated when using 3-D space model.In earthquake early warning systems, real-time shake prediction through wave propagation simulation is a promising approach. Compared with traditional methods, it does not suffer from the inaccurate estimation of source parameters. For computation efficiency, wave direction is assumed to propagate on the 2-D surface of the earth in these methods. In fact, since the seismic wave propagates in the 3-D sphere of the earth, the 2-D space modeling of wave direction results in inaccurate wave estimation. In this paper, we propose a 3-D space numerical shake pre- diction method, which simulates the wave propagation in 3-D space using radiative transfer theory, and incorporate data assimilation technique to estimate the distribution of wave energy. 2011 Tohoku earthquake is studied as an example to show the validity of the proposed model. 2-D space model and 3-D space model are compared in this article, and the prediction results show that numerical shake prediction based on 3-D space model can estimate the real-time ground motion precisely, and overprediction is alleviated when using 3-D space model.

关 键 词：Real-time numerical shake prediction· 3-Dspace model · Radiative transfer theory · Data assimilation 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学]