基于消费责任制的碳排放核算及全球环境压力  

Global carbon emissions and its environmental impact analysis based on a consumption accounting principle

作　　者：钟章奇 姜磊 何凌云[3] 王铮[4,5] 柏玲[6] ZHONG Zhangqi1, JIANG Lei1,2, HE Lingyun3, WANG Zheng4, 5, BAI Ling6(1. School of Economics, Zhejiang University of Finance ＆ Economics, Hangzhou 310018, China; 2. College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 210016, China; 3. School of Management, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116, Jiangsu, China; 4. Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science, East China Normal University, Ministry of Education, Shanghai 200241, China; 5. Institute of Policy and Management, CAS, Beijing 100080, China; 6. School of Economics and Management, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031, Chin)

机构地区：[1]浙江财经大学经济学院,杭州310018 [2]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,南京210016 [3]中国矿业大学管理学院,徐州221116 [4]华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室,上海200241 [5]中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京100080 [6]南昌大学经济管理学院,南昌330031

出　　处：《地理学报》2018年第3期442-459,共18页Acta Geographica Sinica

基　　金：浙江省社科规划课题(18NDJC149YB);国家自然科学基金项目(71742001;41761021);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(17YJC790061)~~

摘　　要：因区域间贸易而转移的碳排放对于全球各个国家或者地区的碳排放核算及其减排责任划分具有重要而深远的影响。通过构建多区域投入产出分析模型和基于扩展的STIRPAT模型,本文核算了全球39个主要国家基于消费责任制的碳排放,并在此基础上深入探讨了全球环境压力的影响因素问题。研究发现:首先,从以净流出为主的中国和俄罗斯来看,尽管贸易给这些地区带来了大量的资源,但随之会产生严重的区域生态环境问题。而对于美国和欧盟等地区来说,这些国家或者地区通过全球贸易规避了大量的碳减排责任。此外,在全球贸易中,区域净流出的贸易隐含碳排放越小,基于消费责任制核算的区域碳排放量就越大,故而在全球减排目标分配中承担的减排任务也需相应地增加。全球贸易隐含碳排放净流出量较大的地区主要位于亚洲和东欧等地,而净流出量最小的地区主要是以西欧和北美等高度发达的经济体为主。其次,就基于消费责任制核算下的全球环境压力而言,人口因素和富裕程度是导致全球环境压力不断增加的两个重要因素,而提高生产技术水平以及逐渐提高清洁能源在总能源消费中的比重是推动全球节能减排、缓解全球环境压力的有效途径。Embodied carbon emissions in international trade plays a crucial role in shaping regional commitments towards emission reduction in the context of global climate change and greenhouse gas emission policy. Based on the multi-region input-output analytical framework and the stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence and technology（STIRPAT）model, this paper analyzes the embodiment of global emissions in trade, so as to explore the characteristics of global carbon emissions under a consumption accounting principle for 39 countries from 1995 to 2011, and investigates the determinants of the embodied emissions in global trade based on an extended STIRPAT model. One finding from this study is that some countries like China and Russia are characterized by the highest net outflow of embodied emissions in trade, while other regions in the world provide strong support for their economic growth through thick trade relationships, and more importantly, comparative advantages are also obtained by their industries associated with trades. Under the production-based accounting principle, these countries like China and Russia have also been accountable for a large volume of emissions embodied in global trade, and thus would face huge pressures to curtail carbon emissions, which, in turn, may also impede the local economic development. Moreover, the lower the net carbon emissions embodied in regional trade, the higher the carbon emissions under a consumption accounting principle. Therefore, the relevant countries should bear greater emissions reduction responsibilities from the perspective of the production-based accounting principle in the context of global climate policy. Additionally, the analysis results show that a larger deal of net carbon emissions embodied in global trade are mainly from Asia and Eastern Europe, while a smaller amount of net carbon emissions embodied in global trade are primarily found in highly economically developed regions like Western Europe and Northern America.Another important findi

关 键 词：贸易隐含碳 投入产出分析 环境压力 能源结构 全球 

分 类 号：F746[经济管理—国际贸易] X196[经济管理—产业经济]