中国杠杆率合理波动区间测度  

Measuring Reasonable Fluctuation Range of China Leverage Ratio

作　　者：李程[1,2] 刘天生 祝诗梦 Li Cheng, Liu Tiansheng, Zhu Shimeng

机构地区：[1]天津工业大学 [2]对外经济贸易大学金融学院

出　　处：《统计研究》2018年第3期38-51,共14页Statistical Research

基　　金：天津哲学社会科学规划项目“金融发展视角下天津市结构性去杠杆的机制路径和对策研究”(TJYY17-008)、博士后第62批面上资助项目“杠杆率合理波动区间测度与结构性去杠杆研究”(2017M620706)、天津市哲学社会科学规划项目“制造业与物流业联动发展机理、模式与绩效研究--以滨海新区两业联动为例”(TJYY13-016)资助.

摘　　要：针对当前去杠杆中亟需解决的阀值测度问题,本文通过搜集我国工业各个行业的相关数据,尝试测算其合理的波动区间。一方面,基于国民收入循环流,以货币流量理论和存款准备率上限为基础,对我国工业各行业杠杆率的下限进行测算;另一方面,根据企业利润的不确定性,以企业收益流能够覆盖成本流为基准,以银行信贷风险有效控制为目标,测算工业各行业杠杆率的上限。研究结论是:第一,我国目前以工业企业为代表的微观杠杆率仍然在相对合理的范围内;第二,各个行业杠杆率的波动区间有所不同;第三,去杠杆政策应该根据不同行业制定,不能一刀切。This paper aims to solve the problem of measuring the leverage threshoht value which needs in imperative. By collecting the relevant data of various industries in our country, we try to calculate the reasonable fluctuation range. On the one hand, with the circulation of national income streams, the paper uses monetary flow theory and the maximum deposit reserve rate as the basis to calculate industrial lowest leverage; on the other hand, according to the uncertainty of corporate profits, we hypotheses that the enterprise income flow covers the cost flow, effectively controlling the credit risk so as to maximum the leverage ratio of each industry. The paper has drawn three conclusions： firstly, China＇s industrial Micro-leverage is still within a fairly reasonable range; secondly, the fluctuation range of each industry is different; thirdly, deleveraging policy should be differ in various industries, not across the board.

关 键 词：杠杆率 国民收入循环 波动区间 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学]