冬奥外交、韩朝接触与美朝首脑会谈——朝鲜半岛是否将出现历史性新变化?  

Winter Olympic Diplomacy——Historical Changes in Korean Peninsula?

作　　者：朱锋 

机构地区：[1]南京大学中国南海研究协同创新中心 [2]南京大学国际关系研究院

出　　处：《现代国际关系》2018年第3期8-17,共10页

摘　　要：自韩国平昌冬季奥运会以来，朝鲜半岛形势出现了明显的变化。不仅朝韩之间进行了高级别互动，美国特朗普政府也宣布将于今年5月与金正恩进行首脑会谈。这些变化的重要原因在于国际社会与美国近年来对朝鲜施加了巨大的外部压力，使朝鲜感到一味进行核试验和导弹试验的道路难以继续推进，因此在压力面前采取了新的外交手法。但未来美朝首脑会谈仍面临着不确定性，在朝鲜不做出实质性让步的情况下，美国对朝政策不会出现大的改变。今后一段时间，半岛局势发展有不同的可能，各方重回六方会谈，尽快重启以“共同声明”为基础的区域机制，才是解决问题的根本出路。There have been obvious changes in Korean Peninsula since Pyeong Chang 2018 was held.There are high level interactions between South and North Korea,Trump administration has declared to meet Kim Jong-un in May this year.The important reason lies in huge external pressure felt in North Korea from international community and the US,North Korea has adopted new diplomacy since it is difficult for it to further advance nuclear and missile test.In the future,there are still uncertainties in US-North Korea summit talks.Unless North Korea makes substantial concessions,the US will not change its North Korea policy.There are diverse possibilities of resolution.The fundamental way forward is restarting Six Party Talks and regional mechanism.

关 键 词：奥运外交 朝鲜半岛 美国对朝政策 

分 类 号：D831.2[政治法律—政治学]