基于分层区间数可能度排序的不确定静态安全分析  

Static Security Analysis With Uncertainty Using Hierarchical Probability Degree Ordering of Interval Numbers

作　　者：鲁广明 谢昶 吕颖 严剑峰 毛学魁[2] 丁涛[3] 孙宏斌[4] 李方兴[5] LU Guangming1, XIE Chang1, LU Ying1, YAN Jianfeng1, MAO Xuekui2, DING Tao3, SUN Hongbin4, LI Fangxing5(1. State Key Laboratory of Power Grid Safety and Energy Conservation （China Electric Power Research Institute）, Haidian District, Beijing 100192, China; 2. State Grid Beijing Haidian Electric Power Supply Company, Haidian District, Beijing 100195, China; 3. School of Electrical Engineering, Xi＇an Jiaotong University, Xi＇an 710049, Shaanxi Province, China; 4. State Key Lab of Control and Simulation of Power Systems and Generation Equipments （Dept. of Electrical Engineering, Tsinghua University）, Haidian District, Beijing 100084, China; 5. Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996, USA)

机构地区：[1]电网安全与节能国家重点实验室(中国电力科学研究院有限公司),北京市海淀区100192 [2]国网北京市电力公司海淀供电公司,北京市海淀区100195 [3]西安交通大学电气工程学院,陕西省西安市710049 [4]电力系统及发电设备控制和仿真国家重点实验室(清华大学电机系),北京市海淀区100084 [5]美国田纳西大学电气工程与计算机科学系,田纳西州诺克斯维尔37996

出　　处：《电网技术》2018年第4期1048-1054,共7页Power System Technology

基　　金：国家电网公司科技项目(XT71-16-019)~~

摘　　要：电力系统静态安全分析作为预防控制的基础,对系统进行N-1事故分析,得到其严重性进行排序。当间歇性能源接入电网后,网络中的潮流分布随之呈现一定的不确定性,为此需考虑不确定情况下的静态安全分析。首先根据区间有功行为指标将故障集分为3层,并采用区间数可能度比较法对每层的故障集分别构造区间指标集的互补判断矩阵,为保证判断矩阵的一致性,建立了以修正量最小的最小二乘模型,从而得到各个分层的区间指标排序向量。根据分层的权重和各个分层排序向量的大小,得到总故障集的安全性排序。以IEEE 9节点为例,详细说明了安全分析方法的求解过程,并采用蒙特卡罗随机模拟方法与之对比,结果表明了所提方法的有效性。最后,多个系统的时间复杂度测试结果体现了安全分析的快速性。Static security analysis is regarded as the basis of preventive control, giving severity ordering of N-1 contingencies. Especially, when large amount of renewable resources integrated into power grid, power flow distribution is uncertain. Therefore, static security analysis with uncertainty should be considered. Firstly, the contingency set is classified into three hierarchies according to assigned weight. Then, probability degree ordering method based on interval numbers and active performance index based complementary judgment matrix are proposed to search ordering weighted vector for each hierarchical contingency set. In order to guarantee consistency of complementary judgment matrix, least squares model is modeled to give severity ordering. Taking IEEE-9 bus system for example, detailed implementation of security analysis method is presented, and comparison with Monte Carlo simulation verifies effectiveness of the proposed method. Finally, testing results of multiple large systems show rapidity of the method for static security analysis.

关 键 词：安全分析 区间数 分层可能度排序 判断矩阵 不确定性 

分 类 号：TM721[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]