基于经济新常态的长春市水资源开发利用潜力评价  

Evaluation ofdevelopment and utilization potential of water resources in Changchun City based on economic new normal

作　　者：倪志楠 李琼芳[1,2] 王凯燕 严方家 沈红霞[1,2] 周正模 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学国际河流研究所,江苏南京210098 [3]上海蓝泰信息咨询有限公司,上海200434

出　　处：《水利经济》2018年第2期10-14,共5页Journal of Economics of Water Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41171220);长江学者和创新团队发展计划(IRT13062)

摘　　要：以长春市为研究对象,基于未来经济处于新常态的发展态势,构建包含水资源、社会、经济、生态环境4个子系统的评价指标体系,并确定各指标的评价等级标准;基于模糊数学理论以及层次分析法构建包括目标层、准则层、指标层的3层模糊综合评价模型,以2015年为现状水平年,应用模型对长春市水资源开发利用潜力进行综合评价。结果表明:长春市水资源开发利用程度处于中等偏上水平,各辖区水资源开发利用规模不平衡,可通过产业结构调整提高全市用水效率,为经济持续增长提供保障。Taking Changchun City as a study site,based on the development trend of the future economy to be new normal,an evaluation index system containing 4 subsystems of water resources,society,economy and ecological environment is established,andtheirevaluationgradestandardsare determined.Based on the theory of fuzzy mathematics and the analytic hierarchy process,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model including target layer,criterion layer and index layer is established.The model is applied in the study area to evaluate the utilization degree and development potential of water resources in Changchun City in 2015.The results show that the development and utilization degree of water resources in Changchun City is at a moderate or above level,the development and utilization of water resources in various jurisdictions are unbalanced,and they still have certain development potential through industrial adjustment.The research results may provide reference for the sustainable development and utilization of water resources in Changchun City under economic new normal.

关 键 词：水资源开发利用潜力 经济新常态 层次分析法 模糊综合评价模型 长春市 

分 类 号：TV231.9[水利工程]