水源地突发水污染政府应急预留水量需求预测  

Demandestimation of governmental emergency reserved water for sudden water pollution in water source areas

作　　者：吴凤平[1] 王新华 李芳[1] 方琳 

机构地区：[1]河海大学商学院,江苏南京210098 [2]淮阴工学院数理学院,江苏淮安223003

出　　处：《水利经济》2018年第2期28-35,共8页Journal of Economics of Water Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41271537)

摘　　要：近年来,随着工业化和产业化的快速发展,水源地突发水污染事件频发。为应对紧急情况下的水资源非常规需求,保障经济社会稳定发展,政府需要安排一部分应急预留水量。如何合理预测政府应急预留水量的规模是一个值得探讨的课题。提出了一种基于案例推理技术的政府应急预留水量需求预测方法,具体思路是:借助于案例库,利用主成分分析法从众多影响水源地突发水污染事件的因素中提取出两两不相关的因子,以此作为案例的特征属性,基于加权曼哈顿距离测算相似度,依此得到匹配案例,进而测算政府应急预留水量。以太湖流域常州地区水源地为例,进行政府预留水量需求量的预测与分析。该方法可以为政府应急预留水量的配置、储备等提供相关理论知识。In recent years,with the rapid development of industrialization,sudden water pollution incidents break out frequently in water source areas.In order to deal with unconventional demand of water resources in emergency situation and to ensure the stable economic and social development,the government should reserve part of the water quantity as the emergency reserved water.How to rationally predict scale of the governmental emergency reserved water is a topic worth discussing.A method for the demand forecast of the government emergency reserved water based on the case-based reasoning is put forward,that is,by means of the case storeroom,the principal component analysis is used to extract pairwise uncorrelated factors which influence the sources of sudden water pollution as the characteristic attributes of the case,and the degree of similarity is estimated by the weighted Manhattan distance.On this basis,the consistent case is obtained,and thus the quantity of the government emergency reserved water is calculated.Finally,taking the water source area in Changzhou of Taihu River Basin as an example,the quantity of the government reserved water is predicted and analyzed.The proposed method can provide the relevant theoretical knowledge for the allocation and reserve of the government emergency reserved water.

关 键 词：水源地突发水污染 主成分分析 案例推理 政府应急预留水量 需求预测 

分 类 号：X522[环境科学与工程—环境工程] TP18[自动化与计算机技术—控制理论与控制工程]