我国宜加快资本项目开放吗?——基于利差视角的分析  

Is It Appropriate to Accelerate Capital Account Openness for China? Based on the View of Interest Rate Differential

作　　者：张春生 梁涛 蒋海[3] 

机构地区：[1]广东财经大学金融学院 [2]广东金融学院经济贸易学院 [3]暨南大学经济学院

出　　处：《亚太经济》2018年第2期38-45,149-150,共8页Asia-Pacific Economic Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金"基于金融稳定视角的逆周期银行监管机制设计"(71473103);"金融支持视角下银行竞争对企业融资约束的影响机理与政策选择"(71573056);广东省社科规划课题"强势美元周期下新兴经济体国际资本流动突停风险与我国的应对研究"(GD16CYJ07);广东省自然科学基金"金融体系顺周期性与中国宏观审慎政策协同管理研究"(2015A030313625);广东省教育厅科研项目"人民币资本项目开放与人民币国际化协同推进路径研究"(2016WTSCX039)

摘　　要：资本项目开放条件可划分为宏观条件与应对条件,不同国际货币政策环境下宏观条件与应对条件的不同组合产生不同开放结果。国际货币政策宽松时利差接近0(较小正利差),国际货币政策紧缩时较大正利差有利于资本项目开放。金融危机之前的很长时期内,人民币收益远高于美元收益,危机后人民币收益显著低于美元收益,不论危机前还是危机后我国并不具备完全开放的条件。当前应大力发展完善金融市场,增加资本流动的容纳力,缩小与国际利率差距,为进一步开放创造条件。Prerequisite of capital account openness can be devided into macroe-condition and counter-condition,variant combinations of macroe-condition and counter-condition during different international monetary policy environment will give rise to different results. When interest rate differential is close to zero( or a bit positive) during loose international monetary policy period,or when interest rate differential is a lot positive( or a bit positive) during constrictive international monetary policy period,it is appropriate to open capital account. RMB return is much higher than U. S dollar before global financial crisis and much lower after crisis,it is immature to accelerate capital account openness. It is urgent to develop financial market as to tolerate more capital flow in and out,reduce interest rate differential between international market,create condition for further capital account opening.

关 键 词：美国货币政策 人民币资本项目开放 中美利差 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]