京津风沙源治理工程对农村劳动力转移的影响  

The Impact of Beijing-Tianjin Sandstorm Source Control Project on Rural Labor Transfer

作　　者：王兰会[1] 黄佳惠 王亚明[3] 李贵福[4] WANG Lan-hui;HUANG Jia-hui;WANG Ya-ming;LI Gui-fu(School of Economies and Management, Beijing Forestry University, 100083, P. R. China;Department of Business Management, Tourism College of Zhejiang , Hangzhou , 311231, P. R. China;Economic Development Research Center, State Forestry Administration, Beijing, 100714,P. R. China;Liaoning Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenyang, 110005,P. R. China)

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学经济管理学院 [2]浙江旅游职业学院工商管理系 [3]国家林业局经济发展研究中心 [4]辽宁省疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《北京林业大学学报（社会科学版）》2018年第1期73-78,共6页Journal of Beijing Forestry University ：Social Sciences

基　　金：国家林业局项目"京津风沙源治理工程社会经济效益监测"(JYC2016-13)

摘　　要：选取2005—2015年京津风沙源治理工程区73户连续样本户的面板数据,在屏蔽社会经济发展和城镇化进程的影响下,探索了京津风沙源治理工程在农村劳动力转移方面的净效应。首先,建立面板数据模型,筛选工程监测指标中对农村劳动力转移有显著影响的变量,并分析工程对农村劳动力转移的影响。其次,在回归模型所得结果的基础上,选取模型中显著的解释变量,并引入地区经济变量作为协变量,进一步采用倾向得分匹配法得到了工程在农村劳动力转移方面的净效应,并对比工程两期差异。分析发现,京津工程对农村劳动力转移确实存在正向作用,且工程从一期到二期净效应增加了0.9%,说明随着京津工程的逐步深入,工程区的社会经济效益会愈加明显。最后,提出了相应的政策建议。This paper explores the net effect of the Beijing-Tianjin Sandstorm Source Control Project on rural labor transfer while excluding the influence of economy development and urbanization process by using the balanced panel data about 73 consecutive samples in the year of 2005 to 2015. Firstly,this paper filters the significant variables for rural labor transfer in the project monitoring through the panel data model,and then preliminarily analyzes the effect of the project on rural labor transfer. Secondly,based on the regression model＇s results,this paper selects the significant explanatory variables in the model and the local economic variable as covariant,and gets the net effect of the project on rural labor transfer using the method of propensity score matching. Moreover,the difference between the phase 1 and 2 of the project was compared. The results show that this project has a positive effect on rural labor transfer,and the net effect increases by 0. 9% from the first phase to the second phase,indicating that the social and economic benefits will become more obvious with the implementation of the project.Finally,this paper proposes policy suggestions for the sustainable development of the project.

关 键 词：京津风沙源治理 农村劳动力转移 面板数据模型 倾向得分匹配 

分 类 号：F326[经济管理—产业经济]