中国松香贸易风险的综合评价方法研究  

A comprehensive evaluation method of Chinese rosin trade risk

作　　者：王瑾[1] 聂影[1] WANG Jin, NIE Ying(College of Economics and Management, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, Chin)

机构地区：[1]南京林业大学经济管理学院,江苏南京210037

出　　处：《南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）》2018年第2期207-211,共5页Journal of Nanjing Forestry University：Natural Sciences Edition

基　　金：国家林业公益性行业科研专项项目(201204107)

摘　　要：【目的】通过模糊评价分析中国松香贸易的对应风险,给出综合评价,并提出有针对性的作业风险控制和管理策略。【方法】立足当前中国松香贸易的实际情况,结合国内外风险管理研究现状,通过现有方法及实际调研,从不同角度鉴别和分析了中国松香贸易可能面临的贸易风险及其影响因素,将其影响因素按照不同特性归纳为合同风险、市场风险、信用风险、其他风险共四大类,据此设计出中国松香贸易风险评价指标体系,并就中国松香贸易风险评价的方法、依据、过程以及评价结果的效用等问题进行了研究。【结果】各类中国松香贸易的服务项目、作业情况和风险控制水平均有所区别,市场影响最大,合同次之,信用最小。中国松香贸易风险处于良好等级,仍需进一步发现存在的安全隐患,同时分析其危险作业环节,对其作业风险管理进行持续改进和完善,不断提高作业风险评价等级。在此基础上,通过算例分析,构建了中国松香贸易模糊综合评价模型B=WiR,确立了相关的指标体系、评语集和单因素模糊评价矩阵。【结论】中国松香贸易应该从辅助生产设施、自然条件影响、工艺适用性等几个方面着手,对其作业风险进行评价、控制和管理,改善和优化中国松香贸易环境与工艺因素,进而提高中国松香贸易风险控制的整体水平。【Objective】Analyze the risk of Chinese rosin trade by fuzzy evaluation and performing a comprehensive evaluation,and proposing targeted operation risk control and management strategy. 【Method】Based on the actual situation of the current Chinese rosin trade,along with the risk management research status at home and abroad,the study uses existing methods and actual investigation for the identification and analysis of the Chinese rosin trade risk and the various factors influencing it. The factors inducing contract risk,market risk,credit risk and four other risk categories are identified according to the designed rosin trade risk evaluation index system of Chinese. This paper analyzes the methods,basis,processes and effectiveness of China rosin trade risk assessment. 【Results】There are differences in the service items,operating conditions,and risk control levels in all kinds of Chinese rosin trade. It is found that the market has the biggest influence,followed by the contract. Credit has the least influence. Rosin trade risk is at a good level in China,but there is still the need to uncover hidden trouble,and to analyze its dangerous operations to continuously improve and perfect the operational risk management,and constantly improve the level of operation risk assessment. Based on the analysis,this paper constructs a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of the Chinese rosin trade,and establishes the relevant index system,evaluation set,and single factor fuzzy evaluation matrix. 【Conclusion】Chinese rosin trade is influenced by auxiliary production facilities,the natural conditions,applicability and matching technology,etc. There is a need to evaluate the operational risk,control and management,and to improve and optimize the environment of the Chinese rosin trade and technological factors,thereby enhancing the overall level of Chinese rosin trade risk control.

关 键 词：中国松香贸易 贸易风险 模糊评价 风险管理 综合评价模型 

分 类 号：S79[农业科学—林木遗传育种] F7[农业科学—林学]