资本开放与经常账户失衡——基于88个经济体的实证研究  

Capital Liberalization and Current Account Imbalance——An Empirical Study Based on 88 Economies

作　　者：蔡兴[1,2] 刘淑兰 CAI Xing;LIU Shu-lan

机构地区：[1]湖南师范大学商学院 [2]湖南师范大学商学院经济系

出　　处：《金融论坛》2018年第4期69-80,共12页Finance Forum

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目(17BJL095)

摘　　要：本文利用88个经济体的平衡面板数据,实证研究资本开放对经常账户失衡的影响。实证结果表明:(1)资本开放对经常账户失衡存在显著的负向影响,即经济体资本开放程度越高,其经常账户余额越低。(2)资本开放主要通过国民储蓄率和国民投资率来影响经常账户失衡,其中,资本开放对国民储蓄率产生显著的负向影响,对国民投资率产生正向影响。(3)对于不同发展水平的经济体,资本开放影响经常账户失衡的渠道存在差异,发展中经济体和发达经济体的资本开放分别主要通过国民储蓄渠道和国民投资渠道影响经常账户失衡。Based on the balance panel data of 88 economies, the authors of this paper presents an empirical analysis of the impact of capital liberalization on current account imbalance. The empirical results show that, （1） there is a significant negative effect of capital liberalization on current account imbalance,and the higher the degree of the capital hberalization of economy, the lower its current account balance is; （2） the capital liberalization mainly affects the current account imba- lance through the national savings rate and the national investment rate, and it has a significant negative impact on the national savings rate and a positive impact on the national investment rate; （3） for the economies at different levels of de- velopment, there are differences in the channels through which the capital liberalization affects current account imbal- ance; the capital liberalization of the developing economies affects the current account imbalance through national savings channels, and that of the advanced economies affects the imbalance through national investment channels.

关 键 词：资本开放 资本流动 储蓄率 投资率 经常账户 外部经济失衡 

分 类 号：F32[经济管理—产业经济] C23[社会学]