一个山区高速公路下纵坡弯道可能事故的CAM  

CAM of Possible Accident for Longitudinal Slope Curve of Mountain Freeway

作　　者：庞明宝 蔡章辉 Pang Mingbao;Cai Zhanghui(School of Civil and Transportation, Hebei University of Technology, Tianjin 300401, China)

机构地区：[1]河北工业大学土木与交通学院,天津300401

出　　处：《系统仿真学报》2018年第4期1414-1422,共9页Journal of System Simulation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(50478088);河北省自然科学基金(E2015202266)

摘　　要：在下纵坡弯道车辆行驶行为和事故分析的基础上,建立一个可能发生交通事故的山区高速公路元胞自动机仿真模型,通过具体道路仿真和实际统计的事故率对比对模型初步验证,对道路几何线性参数改变下各可能方案进行交通流非线性行为仿真和事故概率的计算,分析参数值与事故率关系。结果进一步验证了增大弯道半径、缩小弯道长度、增加弯道超高和降低速度限制上限值可达到降低事故率的结论,依据所提出的元胞自动机仿真模型和具体工程实际,在设计时对参数值优化,在管理时设置合理的速度限制上限值,以达到保证交通安全和降低投资的目的。Based on the analysis of vehicle driving behaviors and accidents, a cellular automaton （CA） simulation model of longitudinal slope curve on mountain freeway with the possible occurrence of traffic accident was established. The model was preliminarily validated via the comparisons between the accident rates in simulation experiments and that in actual statistics for the concrete roads. The possible schemes were determined by setting the different values of road geometric linear parameters. The nonlinear behaviors of traffic flow were simulated and the accident probabilities were obtained. The relations among the accident rate and the parameters＇values were discussed. The results of the example show that the conclusion that the accident rate can be declined by increasing the curve bend radius, reducing the curve length, increasing the curve superelevation, and reducing the speed upper limit was proved again; the values of designing parameters can be optimized and the reasonable speed upper limit value can be set in traffic management according to the proposed CAM and the concrete project. The goal of ensuring the traffic safety and decreasing the investment can be realized.

关 键 词：交通仿真 交通事故概率 元胞自动机模型 山区高速公路 下纵坡弯道 

分 类 号：TP273.5[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置] U491.5[自动化与计算机技术—控制科学与工程]