水文跳跃变异综合加权识别方法——以澜沧江下游戛旧水文站径流序列为例  

Comprehensive weighted recognition method for hydrological abrupt change: With the runoff series of Jiajiu hydrological station in Lancang River as an example

作　　者：顾海挺[1] 谢平[1,2] 桑燕芳 吴子怡[1] GU Hai-ting;XIE Ping;SANG Yah-fang;WU Zi-yi(State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydro- power Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China;Collaborative Innovation Center for Territorial Sovereignty and Maritime Rights, Wuhan 430072, China;Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China）.)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,武汉430072 [2]国家领土主权与海洋权益协同创新中心,武汉430072 [3]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地水循环与地表过程重点实验室,北京100101

出　　处：《应用生态学报》2018年第4期1061-1070,共10页Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(91547205;91647110;51579181);湖南省水利科技项目(湘水科计[2015]13-21);中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所"秉维"优秀青年人才计划项目资助~~

摘　　要：跳跃变异是全球气候变化背景下水文过程发生剧烈变异的重要表现形式,其准确识别对认识水文过程发生的变化及开展实际水文水资源工作具有重要意义.针对目前传统方法在样本两端有时检验结果不可靠、多种方法检验结果常常不一致等问题,本文通过对常用的12种变异点检验方法对比研究,基于赋权方式提出了水文跳跃变异综合加权识别方法,并利用Monte-Carlo统计试验验证了该方法的可靠性.结果表明:12种跳跃变异检验方法的效率受变异点前变差系数(Cv)、变异点前偏态系数(Cs)、均值变幅系数、Cv变幅系数、Cs变幅系数等因素的影响较大,但与序列均值无明显关系.以各方法的性能差异为基础,基于统计试验结果对各检验方法赋予权重.其中,滑动秩和检验法和滑动游程检验法的权重最高,RS检验法的权重最低.通过赋权方式,可以在各方法检测结果不一致时选取综合权重最大的变异点作为最终结果.将该方法应用于澜沧江下游戛旧年径流极大值(1日、3日、5日、7日、1月)序列进行分析,结果显示各个序列均在2004年发生了明显跳跃变异,且与该流域水文过程变化、水利工程建设等物理成因十分吻合,验证了该方法的合理性和可靠性.Abrupt change is an important manifestation of hydrological process with dramatic varia- tion in the context of global climate change, the accurate recognition of which has great significance to understand hydrological process changes and carry out the actual hydrological and water resources works. The traditional method is not reliable at both ends of the samples. The results of the methods are often inconsistent. In order to solve the problem, we proposed a comprehensive weighted recog- nition method for hydrological abrupt change based on weighting by comparing of 12 commonly used methods for testing change points. The reliability of the method was verified by Monte Carlo statisti- cal test. The results showed that the efficiency of the 12 methods was influenced by the factors inclu- ding coefficient of variation （Cv） , deviation coefficient （Cs） before the change point, mean value difference coefficient, Cv difference coefficient and Cs difference coefficient, but with no significant relationship with the mean value of the sequence. Based on the performance of each method, the weight of each test method was given following the results from statistical test. The sliding rank sum test method and the sliding run test method had the highest weight, whereas the RS test method had the lowest weight. By this means, the change points with the largest comprehensive weight could be selected as the final result when the results of the different methods were inconsistent. This method was used to analyze the daily maximum sequence of Jiajiu station in the lower reaches of the Laneang R~＇~er （1-day, 3-day, 5-day, 7-day and 1-month）. The results showed that each sequence had obvious jump variation in 2004, which was in agreement with the physical causes of hydrologi- cal process change and water conservancy construction. The rationality and reliability of the proposed method was verified.

关 键 词：跳跃变异 水文时间序列 统计试验 澜沧江 气候变化 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]