RCPs气候情景下挠力河流域耕地水土资源平衡效应模拟  

Simulation for balanced effect of soil and water resources on cultivated land in Naoli River Basin,Northeast China under the RCPs climate scene

作　　者：周浩[1] 雷国平[1] 杨雪昕 赵宇辉 张继新 ZHOU Hao;LEI Guo-ping;YANG Xue-xin;ZHAO Yu-hui;ZHANG Ji-xin(ILand Management Institute, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110169, China;General Institute of Non-ferrous Metals Geological Exploration of Heilong~iang Province, Harbin 150046, China;Assets Management Center of Land and Resources, Changchun 130011, China）.)

机构地区：[1]东北大学土地管理研究所,沈阳110169 [2]黑龙江省有色金属地质勘查研究总院,哈尔滨150046 [3]长春市国土资产管理中心,长春130011

出　　处：《应用生态学报》2018年第4期1302-1312,共11页Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41671520)资助~~

摘　　要：气候变化背景下,如何耦合水土资源是当前土地资源利用亟待解决的关键问题之一.为揭示挠力河流域耕地水土资源平衡态势,本文以Landsat影像、数字高程模型(DEM)数据和气象台站数据为基本信息源,结合遥感和GIS技术,运用未来土地利用模拟模型定量模拟RCPs气候情景下耕地的水分盈亏状况.结果表明:挠力河流域耕地内部结构差异性变化导致水土资源呈现阶段性的平衡特征,1990年耕地水分盈亏状况良好,旱改水农业结构调整导致当地水田迅速扩张,2002年中度和重度缺水区大量增加,水分亏缺态势急剧恶化,至2014年耕地整体水分亏缺状况趋于缓和;通过对比不同空间分辨率及时间尺度下的模拟精度,确定最优模拟空间分辨率为200 m,最优模拟时间点为2038年;模拟结果显示,未来挠力河流域耕地整体呈现出明显的水分盈亏极化特征,即正常缺水、重度缺水和严重缺水区面积将进一步扩大,轻度缺水和中度缺水区呈现收缩态势,高水分盈亏程度指数区分布更加集中,局部高水分亏缺区面积进一步扩大.未来需针对该地区采取针对性的农田水分灌溉措施及耕地调整,以实现水土资源平衡利用.Under the scenarios of climate change, balancing the land and water resources is one of the key problems needed to be solved in land development. To reveal the water dynamics of the cultivated land in Naoli River Basin, we simulated the future scenarios by using the future land use simulation model based on Landsat Satellite images, the DEM data and the meteorological data. Results showed that the growth rate of cultivated land gradually decreased. It showed different chan- ging characteristics in different time periods, which led to different balancing effect between land and water resources. In 1990, the water dynamics of the cultivated land resources was in good state, At the same time, the adjustment of crops structure caused the paddy fields increased dramatically. During 2002 to 2014, the cultivated land that in moderate and serious moisture shortage state increased slightly, the water deficit was deteriorating to a certain degree, and maintained sound development of water profit and loss situation gradually. By comparing the simulation accuracy with different spatial resolutions and time scales, we selected 200 m as the spatial resolution of the simu- lation, and simulated the land use status in 2038. The simulation results showed that the cultivated land＇ s water profit and loss degree in the river basin showed significant polarization characteristic, in that the water profit and loss degree of the cultivated land would be further intensified, the area with the higher grades of moisture profit and loss degree would distribute more centralized, partially high evaluated grades for the moisture shortage would expand, it is needed to develop cultivated land irrigation schemes and adjust the cultivated land in Naoli River Basin to balance and water resources. and the

关 键 词：水土资源 耕地 平衡效应 未来土地利用模拟模型 挠力河流域 

分 类 号：F323.211[经济管理—产业经济] S27[农业科学—农业水土工程]