全要素生产率、资本和劳动力对产出贡献率的比较研究——理论与来自宁波交通运输业的证据  

Study of Comparison among TFP,Capital and Labor to Output Contribution Rate——Theory and Evidence from Ningbo Transportation Industry

作　　者：应晓红[1] 龙建辉 YING Xiao- hong;LONG Jian- hui(Ningbo City College of Vocational Technology Ningbo, Zhejiang 315010, China;Ningbo Modern Logistics Planning Research Institute Ningbo , Zhejiang 315042 , China)

机构地区：[1]宁波城市职业技术学院,浙江宁波315010 [2]宁波市现代物流规划研究院,浙江宁波315042

出　　处：《浙江水利水电学院学报》2018年第1期51-56,62,共7页Journal of Zhejiang University of Water Resources and Electric Power

基　　金：宁波市软科学重点项目(2015A10022);宁波市哲学社会科学规划课题(G15-ZX01);宁波市科技项目(2015A10092);浙江省教育厅科研项目(Y201328638)

摘　　要：采用换算周转量作为交通运输业的产出指标,借助"配第-克拉克定律"确定技术进步的替代变量,基于柯布-道格拉斯生产函数测度出各要素的产出弹性系数,根据索洛余值法测度出TFP对宁波市交通运输业产出的年度贡献率和聚合贡献率.其中,2015年的TFP贡献率为48.63%,与国务院和交通运输部提出在2020年实现60%,浙江省政府和宁波市政府提出在2020年达到65%的目标还存在一定差距.根据这些差距,建议调整宁波交通运输业未来几年TFP贡献率的实现目标、科技工作重点的内容、科技投资力度和科技政策导向等.Conversion turnover is used as the output index of the transportation industry,uses Petty-Clark theorem to determine the alternative variables of technological progress and is based on Cobb-Douglas production function to measure the output elasticity coefficient of each factor. Then,according to the Solow Residual Approach,the annual contribution rate,the average contribution rate and the combined contribution rate of TFP to the output of Ningbo transportation industry are measured. Among them,the contribution of TFP in 2015 is 48. 63%. There is a certain gap with the state Council and the transportation department to achieve 60% and the government of Zhejiang province and Ningbo city to achieve 65% in 2020. According to the gap,we can further adjust the goal of the TFP contribution rate of Ningbo transportation industry in the next few years,key tasks of science-technology,investment in science-technology and science-technology policy orientation.

关 键 词：配第-克拉克定律 全要素生产率 换算周转率 贡献率测度 

分 类 号：F014.1[经济管理—政治经济学]