深圳市大气PM2.5污染对早产急性影响的时间序列  

Time series study of acute effect of PM2.5 on preterm birth in Shenzhen City

作　　者：牟敬锋[1] 曾丹 樊静洁[2] 严宙宁[1] 严燕[1] 罗文亮[1] MU Jingleng , ZENG Dan, FAN Jingjie, YAN Zhouning, YAN Yan, LUO Wenliang(MU Nanshan District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenzhen, Guangdong 518054, China)

机构地区：[1]广东省深圳市南山区疾病预防控制中心,广东深圳518054 [2]广东省深圳市妇幼保健院

出　　处：《公共卫生与预防医学》2018年第2期19-24,共6页Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine

基　　金：深圳市科技创新委员会科技计划项目(JCYJ20170306103652632);深圳市卫生计生系统科研项目(201607065)

摘　　要：目的研究深圳市大气细颗粒物(PM2.5)对早产的急性影响。方法从国家环境保护部获取2015年大气污染资料,深圳市气象局获得2015年气象资料,深圳市某妇幼保健院收集2015年逐日早产数资料。控制时间因素、气象因素等混杂因素的影响,采用广义可加模型(GAM)构建深圳市PM2.5与新生儿早产数模型。结果 2015年深圳市大气PM2.5日均浓度为29.9μg/m3。滞后效应和累积效应GAM时序分析结果显示,PM2.5单污染物模型的早产效应显著,滞后效应中早产效应维持在当天,当大气中PM2.5每升高10μg/m3,其相对危险度(RR)为1.031(95%CI=1.002-1.074),在累积效应中PM2.5的早产效应在滞后7d达到最大值,每升高10μg/m3,其RR为1.034(95%CI=1.002-1.088)。多污染物模型GAM时序分析结果显示,在PM2.5加入一氧化碳(CO)的双污染物模型中PM2.5滞后效应达最大,其RR为1.040(95%CI=1.001-1.075),而在PM2.5加入臭氧(O3)的双污染物模型中PM2.5累积效应达最大,其RR为1.037(95%CI=1.003-1.105)。结论深圳市大气中PM2.5、CO和O3污染对新生儿早产具有潜在的急性影响。Objective To analyze the acute effect of PM2. 5 on preterm birth of newborn in Shenzhen. Methods The daily preterm birth data were collected from a Maternity Child Healthcare Hospital. Meteorological data and air pollution data were collected from the Meteorological Bureau of Shenzhen Municipality and the Ministry of Environmental Protection of the People ＇s Republic of China respectively. Generalized additive model（ GAM） were used to examine the relationship between PM2. 5 and preterm birth in Shenzhen,controlled with time trends and weather. Results The average concentration of PM2. 5 was 29. 9μg/m3 in 2015.The lagged and accumulation effect of GAM suggested that the single pollutant model was significant. The lagged effect of PM2. 5 could only be maintained for one day. An increase of 10 μg/m3 of PM2. 5 corresponded to 1. 031（ 95% CI： 1. 002-1. 074） relative risk of preterm birth. The cumulative effects of PM2. 5 reached the maximum on the 7 th day. An increase of 10 μg/m3 of PM2. 5 corresponded to 1. 034（ 95% CI： 1. 002-1. 088） relative risk of preterm birth. The results of multiple air pollutants GAM showed that the lagged effect of PM2. 5 was the strongest when CO was included in the double pollutant models,and the relative risk of preterm birth was1. 040（ 95% CI： 1. 001-1. 075）. The accumulation effect of PM2. 5 was the strongest when O3 was included in the double pollutant models,and the relative risk of preterm birth was 1. 037（ 95% CI： 1. 003-1. 105）. Conclusion The pollution of PM2. 5,CO and O3 in the atmosphere of Shenzhen City had a potential acute effect on preterm birth.

关 键 词：PM2.5 广义相加模型 早产 

分 类 号：R122[医药卫生—环境卫生学]