透视非洲民主化进程中的“第三任期”现象  

An Analysis of “Third-Term”Phenomenon in the Process of Democratization in Africa

作　　者：沈晓雷[1] Shen Xiaolei

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院西亚非洲研究所

出　　处：《西亚非洲》2018年第2期124-146,共23页West Asia and Africa

摘　　要：非洲的"第三任期"现象在近年来引起国际社会普遍关注,甚至被视为非洲民主政治发展中的所谓"民主衰退"。事实上,"第三任期"现象的盛行与非洲"强人政治"与传统政治文化的影响、民主政治发展条件不成熟、领导人现实利益的考量和国际社会的矛盾立场等因素密切相关。客观而言,"第三任期"现象凸显了非洲国家民主化进程的复杂性与长期性。"第三任期"现象是相关国家基于本国历史文化和社会政治条件对西式民主或西式民主化进程的反应,它体现出这些国家为探索符合本国国情的民主巩固方式和民主发展道路而做出的尝试。如果"第三任期"国家能够在强政府或强人的领导下提高执政能力,实现长期的政治稳定和经济发展,并进而完成统一的民族国家建构,则将会为它们巩固民主和建立符合它们自身国情的民主政治制度奠定坚实的基础。Abstract： In recent years, ＂the Third-Term＂phenomenon in Africa has attracted serious concern in international communities,and has been considered as＂Democratic recession＂in the development of African democratic politics. In fact,＂the Third-Term＂phenomenon in Africa is the result of interaction between the following factors： the negative influence of strongman politics and traditional political culture,the immaturity of democratic development condition,the consideration of realistic interests of the top leaders,and the ambivalent positions of international communities. ＂The Third-Term＂phenomenon highlights that the development of democratic politics in Africa will be a long-time and complicated process. The Third-Term phenomenon shows that those countries and are trying to seek their own ways to consolidate and develop democracy based on their own history,culture,social and political conditions,rather than following the Western-style democracy or Western-style democratization process again. If they can promote the governing capacity,maintain long-term political stability and economic development, and complete the state building under the leadership of strong government or strongman,they will have a great chance to achieve democratic consolidation and establish democratic politics with their own characteristics.

关 键 词：民主化 非洲 “第三任期” 国家建构 民主巩固 

分 类 号：D74[政治法律—政治学]