A STUDY ON THE ENSEMBLE FORECAST REAL-TIME CORRECTION METHOD  

作　　者：GUO Rong QI Liang-bo GE Qian-qian WENG Yong-yuan 郭蓉;漆梁波;葛倩倩;翁永元(Shanghai Central Meteorological Observatory, Shanghai 200030 China;Shanghai Typhoon Institute of CMA, Shanghai 200030 China;Zhejiang University of Finance ＆ Economics, Hangzhou 300016 China;Shanghai Meteorological Bureau, Shanghai 200030 China)

机构地区：[1]Shanghai Central Meteorological Observatory,Shanghai 200030 China [2]Shanghai Typhoon Institute of CMA,Shanghai 200030 China [3]Zhejiang University of Finance&Economics,Hangzhou 300016 China [4]Shanghai Meteorological Bureau,Shanghai 200030 China

出　　处：《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》2018年第1期42-48,共7页热带气象学报（英文版）

基　　金：National Natural Science Foundation of China(41475060,41275067,41405060)

摘　　要：Using real-time correction technology for typhoons, this paper discusses real-time correction for forecasting the track of four typhoons during 2009 and 2010 in Japan, Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shanghai. It was determined that the short-time forecast effect was better than the original objective mode. By selecting four types of integration schemes after multiple mode path integration for those four objective modes, the forecast effect of the multi-mode path integration is better, on average, than any single model. Moreover, multi-mode ensemble forecasting has obvious advantages during the initial 36 h.Using real-time correction technology for typhoons, this paper discusses real-time correction for forecasting the track of four typhoons during 2009 and 2010 in Japan, Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shanghai. It was determined that the short-time forecast effect was better than the original objective mode. By selecting four types of integration schemes after multiple mode path integration for those four objective modes, the forecast effect of the multi-mode path integration is better, on average, than any single model. Moreover, multi-mode ensemble forecasting has obvious advantages during the initial 36 h.

关 键 词：typhoon path real-time correction ensemble forecast track errors 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]