草原生态保护补奖政策下牧户牧业生产决策行为影响分析——以山西和新疆为例  

The production behaviors of herdsmen in Shanxi and Xinjiang in related to the grassland ecological protection and complement policies

作　　者：杨春[1] 朱增勇[2] 韩振 YANG Chun;ZHU Zengyong;HAN Zhen(Institute of Agricultural Economics and development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China;Agricultural Information Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences;Key Lab of Digital Agricultural Early Waring Technology, Ministry of Agricultur;Key Lab of Digital Agricultural Early Waring Technology and System, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, Chin)

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京100081 [2]中国农业科学院农业信息研究所/农业部智能化农业预警技术重点开放实验室/中国农业科学院智能化农业预警技术与系统重点开放实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2018年第5期27-32,共6页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71503251);中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目(ASTIP-IAED-2015-01);中国农业科学院基本科研业务费专项(Y2016ZK21;1610052016002-1);国家牧草产业技术体系专项资金(CARS-35-22)资助

摘　　要：文中运用山西和新疆的牧户调研数据,基于Logit模型和多元线性回归模型,对当前草原生态保护补奖政策下牧户牧业生产决策行为影响进行了实证分析。结果显示,牧户是否扩大牧业生产规模主要受能否筹集到扩大养殖所需资金、牧业收入占比、牧户牧业生产收入预期、牧户对草原生态保护补奖标准评价的影响,放牧草场面积、人工饲草地面积、能否筹集到扩大养殖所需资金、牧户对草原生态保护补奖标准评价对牧户扩大多少牧业生产规模具有显著影响。与此同时,草原生态保护补奖政策对牧户是否扩大牧业生产规模及扩大多少牧业生产规模均有一定的影响。Based on Logit model and the multiple linear regression model, we analyzed the influence of grassland ecological protection and complement policies on the production behavior of pastoral animal husbandry in Shanxi and Xinjiang. The results shove that the main factors that influenced the herdsmen expanding their scale of animal husbandry production are whether they can raise the funds needed for expanding the breeding, the proportion of animal husbandry income, the production income of herdsmen, and the standard of grassland ecological protec- tion evaluation. Grazing pasture area, artificial forage area, the funds needed to expand the breeding, the evalu- ation of herdsmen on grassland ecological protection award significantly affected the scale of expand husbandry.

关 键 词：草原生态保护补奖政策 牧户 生产决策行为 

分 类 号：F307.3[经济管理—产业经济]