苏州市水资源变化与主要驱动因素分析  

Trend and main driving factors of water resources change in Suzhou City

作　　者：赵超 刘光生 杨金艳 ZHAO Chao;LIU Guangsheng;YANG Jinyan(Water Resources and Environmental College, Xiamen University of Technology, Xiamen 361005, China;Suzhou Branch of Hydrology and Water Resources Investigation Bureau of Jiangsu Province, Suzhou 215000, China)

机构地区：[1]厦门理工学院环境科学与工程学院,福建厦门361024 [2]江苏省水文水资源勘测局苏州分局,江苏苏州215000

出　　处：《武汉大学学报（工学版）》2018年第4期289-293,298,共6页Engineering Journal of Wuhan University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(编号:50909084);福建省自然科学基金(编号:2015J05114,2017J01721);厦门市科技局项目(编号:3502Z20150051)

摘　　要：以城市化水平较高的苏州市为研究区域，选用Mann-Kendall趋势检测和突变检测分析该区域水资源近50年的变化趋势和主要驱动因素，并利用双累积曲线和气候弹性模型定量评估驱动因素对径流变化的影响贡献率．结果显示，苏州市水资源量近50年呈显著的上升趋势，且在1991年发生突变；气候变化和城市化为主的人类活动是苏州市水资源变化的主要驱动因素，且都导致径流增大；双累积曲线和气候弹性模型的定量评估结果相似，均显示气候变化的贡献率超过50％，分别为62％和77％；人类活动的贡献率分别为38％和23％．研究成果为苏州市海绵城市规划设计提供决策依据．Mann-Kendall trend test and change points test were used to analyze the change trend and abrupt point of water resources in recent 50 years for urbanized Suzhou City. The double mass curve and climate elasticity model are chosen to assess the impact degree of main driving factors on water resources changes quantitavively. The results show that the series had significant increasing trends~ and mutation features occurred in 1991. The climate change and human activities are the main driving factors for runoff change; both led to the increase of runoff. Quantitative assessment results of double mass curve the climate elasticity model are similar;the contribution rations of climate change on runoff change both exceeded 50 %, and were 62% and 77% respectively. The impact proportions of human activities on runoff change are 38% and 23 % respectively. The conclusions can provide the decision-making basis for the planning and design of the sponge city in Suzhou City.

关 键 词：苏州市 水资源变化 Mann—Kendall检测 双累积曲线 气候弹性模型 

分 类 号：P338[天文地球—水文科学]