人民币汇率合理性的实证研究——基于跨国面板的证据和启示  

Empirical Study on Rationality of RMB Exchange Rate——Evidence and Enlightenment Based on Multinational Panel

作　　者：赵先立[1] ZHAO Xianli

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学,北京100081

出　　处：《上海立信会计金融学院学报》2018年第2期5-24,共20页Journal of Shanghai Lixin University of Accounting and Finance

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"货币政策多目标交互行为协调控制研究"(61273230)的支持

摘　　要：文章从国际和历史的视角出发,建立汇率决定模型并使用面板数据对德国、日本、韩国、新加坡和中国台湾在1964—1995年间的汇率失调进行了测算,经验证据表明各经济体在其高速增长的大部分时期都存在汇率低估,因此人民币的失调并非个例。本文进一步结合各经济体货币的低估及其同期经济表现与人民币进行对比后发现,人民币汇率水平与中国经济发展相适应,处于合理范围且不存在大幅失调;并且与五个经济体对比,中国的金融自由化、货币政策独立性和产业结构等方面存在较大不足。因此,人民币应继续坚持渐进汇率形成机制改革的路径。Based on the international and historical perspective, this paper estimates the currencies misalignment of Germany, Japan, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan from 1964 to 1995 by use of panel BEER Model. The empirical evidence shows that there are currencies underestimation of the five economies in their rapid growth periods, so misalignment of RMB is not unique example. We also combine the currencies underestimation and economic performance in the same periods of the five economies.Comparing to RMB, it shows that the level of RMB exchange rate is compatible with Chinese economic development. The level of RMB exchange rate is in a reasonable range and there isn＇t sharp underestimation. Moreover, comparing with the five economics, the financial liberalization, monetary policy independence and industrial structure of China still have some deficiencies. Therefore, RMB does not have the condition of sharp appreciation.

关 键 词：汇率失调 国际经验 合理性 行为均衡汇率模型 

分 类 号：F822.1[经济管理—财政学]