北方草原区气候变化影响与适应  

Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation in Northern Grassland of China

作　　者：萨茹拉[1] 丁勇[1] 侯向阳[1] Sarula;DING Yong;HOU Xiang-yang(Institute of Grassland Research, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences/Key Laboratory of Grassland Ecology and Restoration, Ministry of Agriculture, Hohhot 010010, China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院草原研究所/农业部草地生态与修复重点实验室,内蒙古呼和浩特010010

出　　处：《中国草地学报》2018年第2期109-115,共7页Chinese Journal of Grassland

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(31601988);国家自然科学基金重点项目(70933004);国家自然科学基金面上项目(71774162);国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(973项目)(2014CB138806);内蒙古自然科学基金项目(2016BS0318);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费项目(1610332015021;1610332017004)

摘　　要：针对我国北方草原区气候变化敏感脆弱,草原气候变化影响和适应研究薄弱,特别是在全民应对气候变化的行动中牧户适应能力和效率低下的问题,基于气象数据、树木年轮、问卷调研等数据,系统研究了区域气候变化趋势,区域、县域、牧户三个层面的气候变化脆弱性,以及牧户对气候变化的感知与适应行为。提出以下观点:北方草原区气候年际、年代际和世纪3个尺度"暖旱化"趋势增强;生态环境本底越好,其适应气候变化的能力越强;牧民对气候变化的感知存在传导途径与偏差。在此基础上,深刻阐释了"心理载畜率"内涵,从全新的视角剖析了当前草原放牧超载的原因,并面向不同管理层次提出了政策性建议。The research which is focused on the impact of climate change and adaptation is weak,especially the herder＇s adaptability and inefficiency in dealing with climate change.The regional climate trends,climate change vulnerability at region,county and herder level,and the herder＇s perception and adaptation to climate changes were studied based on data of meteorology,tree rings and questionnaire survey.The viewpoints were as follows：warm-dying trend has grown stronger in inter-annual,inter-decadal and century scales;The better ecological environment background,the more ability to adapt to climate change.There are pathways and deviation for herder＇s perception to climate change.Thus,the concept of herders＇ desirable stocking rate was proposed to explain the reason of overgrazing from a new perspective,and a series of policy suggestions were proposed to deal with climate change.

关 键 词：北方草原 气候变化 脆弱性 影响与适应 心理载畜率 对策建议 

分 类 号：S812[农业科学—草业科学]