基于耦合模型的新疆旅游业-新型城镇化-生态环境协调关系量化分析  

Quantitative Analysis of Coordinated Relationships Among Tourism,New Urbanization and Ecological System in Xinjiang Based on Coupling Modelling

作　　者：王亚菲 瓦哈甫·哈力克[1,2,3] 王芳[1,3] 王新芸[1,3] WANG Ya-fei;HALIK Wahap;WANG Fang;WANG Xin-yun(The key lab for Oasis Ecosystem of MOE;College of Tourism Management;College of Resource and Environment Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China)

机构地区：[1]新疆大学绿洲生态教育部重点实验室,中国乌鲁木齐830046 [2]新疆大学旅游学院中国乌鲁木齐830046 [3]新疆大学资源与环境科学学院,中国乌鲁木齐830046

出　　处：《湖南师范大学自然科学学报》2018年第2期1-7,共7页Journal of Natural Science of Hunan Normal University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(U41661106;41271168)

摘　　要：基于系统耦合的作用机理,以2006-2015年新疆旅游业、新型城镇化及生态环境发展相互作用为研究对象,运用变异系数法,确定了三大系统9个方面的37个指标权重,并构建新疆旅游业-新型城镇化-生态环境发展耦合关联模型,定量分析了三者相互作用的协调程度.结果表明:(1)旅游业、新型城镇化、生态环境各子系统综合评价指数在2009年前发展较慢,之后发展水平快速上升;(2)三大系统耦合协调度由2009年前的失调发展转为协调发展;(3)三大系统协调发展类型由旅游业超前发展转为新型城镇化,而后相继转换,并且在2011,2012及2015年出现旅游业或新型城镇化发展超出生态环境承载力范围.在此研究结果上提出促进新疆旅游业、新型城镇化及生态系统协调发展建议:(1)紧跟国家"一带一路"战略,优化新疆产业结构;(2)打造具有新疆民族文化底蕴的旅游特色小镇;(3)走绿色可持续的旅游业及新型城镇化发展道路.Making use of the mechanism of system coupling,taking the interaction among tourism,new urbanization and ecological environment development in Xinjiang from 2006 to 2015 as the research object,and employing the coefficient of the variation method,in this work,we determined 37 indicators from nine aspects of the three systems and built a coupled model on Xinjiang tourism-new urbanization-eco-environment development. Quantitative analyses of the coordination were conducted for the three interacting systems. Our results show that the comprehensive evaluation index of each subsystem in tourism,new urbanization and ecological environment started slowly before 2009 and then rapidly increased,the coordination degree of the three systems shifted from the unregulated development pattern before 2009 to the more coordinated pattern,the coordinated development of the three systems shifted from the advanced development of the tourism industry to new urbanization and then switched over one after another. The development of tourism or new urbanization in the years of 2011,2012 and 2015 exceeded the maximum carrying capacity of the ecological environment. Based on the results from this study,following suggestions are put forward to promote the coordinated development of tourism,new urbanization and ecosystem in Xinjiang. We should first follow the national strategy of ＂ One Belt and One Road Initiative＂ to optimize the industrial structure in Xinjiang and secondly create tourism characteristics with Xinjiang ＇ s national cultural heritage Town,and lastly pursue green and sustainable tourism and take the new urbanization path in development.

关 键 词：旅游业 新型城镇化 生态环境 耦合度 新疆 

分 类 号：F59[经济管理—旅游管理]