鼓励生育二孩利国益民并有助于粮食安全  

Encouraging Couples to Have Two Children Would Not Only Benefit the Country and People But Also Helpful for China to Ensure Food Security

作　　者：曾毅[1,2,3] ZENG Yi(National School of Development, Peking University 100871;Raissun Institute for Advanced Studies, Peking University 100871;Center for Study of Aging and Human Development and Geriatrics Division, School of Medicine, Duke University, Durham （U. S.） 27710)

机构地区：[1]北京大学国家发展研究院,北京100871 [2]北京大学瑞意高等研究所,北京100871 [3]杜克大学医学院老年与人类发展研究中心和老年医学部,达勒姆美国27710

出　　处：《科技促进发展》2018年第1期7-16,共10页Science & Technology for Development

基　　金：国家自然科学基金委重点项目(编号:71233001):关于改善老龄健康保障机制和科学管理效益的研究;负责人:曾毅;国家自然科学基金委重大项目(编号:71490732):健康老龄化--老年人口健康影响因素及有效干预的基础科学问题研究;负责人:曾毅;国务院研究室委托北京大学国家发展研究院关于"人口政策与人口老龄化问题研究"国家高端智库政策咨询研究项目资助

摘　　要：本文首先综述我国2015年10月宣布普遍二孩政策以来媒体的反应,讨论普遍二孩政策实行两年多来生育水平和城乡育龄夫妇生育意愿仍然偏低的现状,然后简述人口与经济增长及包括粮食安全的生存资源关系研究的历史回顾,以及我国改革开放以来经济增长奇迹与人口转变的关系。在此基础上,本文根据实证数据分析,重点论证为何在当今我国生育率已经很低的现实条件下,鼓励生育二孩政策既利国又惠民并有助于粮食安全,最后提出相关政策建议。This article first summarizes the Chinese media＇s responses to the universal two-child policy announced in October 2015,and discusses the current situation that level and desirability of fertility of urban and rural couples of childbearing age are still very low two years after the launch of the universal two-child policy.The article then reviews researches about the relations between population,economic growth and food security,and the correlation between the miracle of economic growth and population changes since the economic reform and opening-door of China.Based on empirical and demographic data analyses,the article focuses on discussing the reasons why a policy of encouraging couples to have two children would not only benefit the country and people but also helpful for China to ensure food security,under current reality of very low fertility.The article finally presents the relevant policy recommendations.

关 键 词：普遍二孩政策 劳力资源 粮食安全 人口与家庭老化 子女健康成长 

分 类 号：C924.21[社会学—人口学] F326.11