中原城市群城市规模分布及演进机理研究  

On the Evolution Mechanism of the City Size Distribution of Central Plains Urban Agglomeration

作　　者：王振坡 张馨芳 王丽艳 Wang Zhenpo;Zhang Xinfang;Wang Liyan

机构地区：[1]天津城建大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《区域经济评论》2018年第1期108-116,共9页Regional Economic Review

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"新型城镇化进程中我国城镇规模分布及其演进机理研究"(13BJY054);"十二五"天津市高等学校创新团队培养计划项目"新型城镇化与城市可持续发展"(TD12-5063)

摘　　要：基于2000—2015年城区人口数据,运用城市规模分布的结构分析方法和非参数检验方法,分析中原城市群城市规模分布演进特征。结果显示:中原城市群城市规模结构呈橄榄形,城市规模结构分布出现断层现象,小城市发育不够,规模偏小、数量偏低;在不同规模城市转移的过程中,中等城市向大城市转移的概率较高,大城市向特大城市、特大城市向超大城市转移的概率较低;城市群城市体系符合位序—规模分布,高位序城市规模集聚逐步增强,首位城市郑州仍需要提高辐射带动作用,增强核心竞争力。在此基础上,构建鱼骨驱动模型分析中原城市群城市规模分布演进机理,提出加强首位城市辐射带动作用、培育发展现代中小城市、完善城市群城际交通网络等优化对策。This paper studies the change of the city size distribution of the Central Plains urban agglomeration from 2000 to 2015 through a structure analysis and nonparametric test.Its result indicates that the urban scale structure of the Central Plains city group shows olive type,and middle-size cities appear a serious fault phenomenon,a number of small cities are at a relatively low developing level with low quantity.Markov transition probability matrix shows that transition probability from medium-cities to big-cities is high,while probability from big-cities to megacities is low.The Central Plains urban agglomeration exhibits a city-size distribution following the rank-size rule.High-order city scale gathering gradually increases,the first city of.Zhengzhou still needs to improve the role of radiation,enhances core competitiveness.Based on the fish bone drive model,this paper discusses the evolution mechanism of Central Plains urban agglomeration,and outs forward the relevant oolicv suggestions.

关 键 词：中原城市群 城市规模分布 马尔科夫转移矩阵 核密度估计 鱼骨驱动模型 

分 类 号：F037[经济管理—政治经济学]